Recently, the market of phosphorus chemical industry rose, and it rose sharply in the situation of the price decline of more than 100 raw materials of “stepping on the brake” of bulk commodities, and reached the highest level in the year. Yellow phosphorus led the rise of phosphorus chemical industry, which was comparable to the price trend in 2019, and led to the fluctuation of related product price index, and the overall trend of phosphorus chemical industry was up.

According to the large data list of business agencies, the phosphorus chemical industry plate has been red all over the country recently. The phosphorus chemical index on May 27 was 1087, up 5 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 45.13 percent from the lowest point of 749 on October 07, 2018（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present). According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 3 commodities rising in the list of rise and fall of phosphorus chemical industry price on May 26, 2021, 0 commodities falling, and 2 commodities with rise and fall of 0. The main commodities rising were: yellow phosphorus (4.17%), monoammonium phosphate (1.95%), phosphoric acid (1.17%); The daily average rise and fall was 1.46 per cent.

China is the world’s largest producer of phosphorus chemical products. Phosphorus chemical industry includes phosphate fertilizer industry, yellow phosphorus and phosphating industry, phosphoric acid and phosphate industry, organic phosphating industry, phosphorus containing pesticide and pharmaceutical industry, etc. it is widely used and an important industry in national economy. According to the data above, five commodities in the plate, including yellow phosphorus led the market, up about 48% year-on-year, followed by diammonium phosphate, up more than 40% year-on-year, with different commodity growth, but the overall trend of phosphorous chemical industry is strong. The following is a detailed view:

Good atmosphere of investment and high consolidation operation of domestic phosphorus ore

In late May, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to maintain high consolidation operation as a whole, the overall market investment atmosphere was good, downstream orders were relatively stable, and the delivery of the industry was normal. The phosphorus ore market in Guizhou Province is in high order and operation. The enterprise start rate is low in Guizhou Province, the inventory of phosphate ore is low, and the spot supply is tight. Most of Guizhou mining enterprises keep high and firm quotation. The market transaction price is generally high. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 27, the reference average price of 30% of the mainstream areas of phosphorus ore in China is 510 yuan / ton, compared with the price on May 1, The average price rose 30 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, up 30.21% compared with the same period last year.

The analysts of phosphorus ore of business agency believe that: the overall trading climate of the market is good, the downstream Yellow Phosphorus market is also slightly pushed up, and the upstream and downstream are effectively supported. Therefore, the analysts of the phosphorus ore of business society believe that the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Domestic yellow phosphorus market price soared in short supply

In late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, less water and limited electricity in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, the power limit has not been relieved, but it is becoming more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Sichuan is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Guizhou is about 25000 yuan / ton.

Analysts of huangp, a business agency, believe that due to the influence of power limit in Yunnan, manufacturers park more and the spot tension is increasing. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will still be adjusted above the main price in the short term.

Cost supports the high market of phosphoric acid

In May, the phosphoric acid market was relatively stable in the first half of the month, and the next half of the month fluctuated narrowly. Near the end of the month, the phosphoric acid market rose rapidly and rushed to a high level. This month, the increase was mainly caused by the rising price of raw material yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus is now high to 25000 yuan / ton, and the supply is short. The phosphoric acid market is supported by cost and the price increases in linkage. The enterprise’s range of increase is about 350-1100 yuan / t, which rapidly rises to high level. Taking Ronghong chemical as an example, the latest price is 6400 yuan / ton, and the price is high, Some enterprises started to decline due to the high price of raw materials and goods, while closing the offer and closing the report, the business was mostly in a wait-and-see form, while the downstream still maintained the purchase demand, and the high price transactions were very few.

Phosphoric acid analysts of business agency believe that the price of raw material yellow phosphorus market has been rising continuously recently, most of which have been closed and closed. The phosphoric acid market has been linked to a high level. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term, and the change of raw material price should be closely watched.

The market of Monoammonium is warming, and there is no fluctuation of diammonium

The price of monoammonium phosphate rose, and the price rose 3.29% in the month. Domestic demand increased, and orders increased. The commencement rate of ammonium monoammonium enterprises is about 70%, slightly higher than last week. In the process of shutdown and maintenance of some enterprises, the price rose. The price of diammonium phosphate is stable. The domestic market is stable and has no fluctuation for now. Domestic demand is general, and the order quantity is not followed up enough. Some enterprises stop production and maintenance, and the source of goods is tight, mainly export oriented. The start rate of ammonium enterprises was about 55% this Tuesday, and the rate of commencement was low.

Business agency analysts believe that the atmosphere in the market of monoammonium phosphate is warming and demand has been improved. The price of raw materials increased and supply decreased. Domestic market of diammonium phosphate is flat, still export oriented, new single follow-up is insufficient. It is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise in the short term, and the stable operation of diammonium phosphate will be the main.

Post market forecast

In late May, phosphorus chemical opened up the upward channel, the price went higher, and the overall market was relatively strong. Huangp is in the middle of the industrial chain. Recently, the price has risen, and the industrial chain is linked up and up. Individual products are dragged down by demand, and the price has not changed significantly. At present, the supply of phosphorus chemical industry market is tight, and there is still upward expectation in the short term. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Therefore, the driving force of continuous rise is not strong, and the market may face a callback.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 26, the comprehensive price of the PC market was 28466.67 yuan / ton, which was dominated by the weak operation of the PC market in the near future. Compared with the same period last week, the price dropped by 2.06%. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the transaction atmosphere is general. In the short term, the PC market is in a narrow range and remains weak.

The PC market is weak, the focus of negotiation is low, the downstream follow-up is slow, and just need to purchase is maintained. The PC market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In the near future, it is mainly weak and volatile, and it is possible to continue to decline. BPA in the upstream falls sharply, and the PC cost is generally supported.

Bisphenol a commodity index: on May 25, the bisphenol a commodity index was 241.82, down 6.81 points from yesterday, down 14.61% from 283.19 points (2021-04-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 235.44% from 72.09 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now).

Business community PC analysts believe that: in the short term, PC weak operation, start low, the rise is not obvious, maintain the early trend（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2273.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2320.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.05%, and a year-on-year increase of 42.33%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week. The urea commodity index was 107.91 on May 21, with an upward trend over the weekend.

The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is good, and the supply side is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The price of urea in Yangmei plain this weekend is 2320 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2310 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2330 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, it seems that the upstream products of urea have mutual rise and fall this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped sharply, from 3860.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3566.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 7.60%, a year-on-year increase of 33.75%; The price of steam coal dropped slightly, from 942.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 935.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.80%, up 78.69% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3846.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3920.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.91%, 27.14% over the same period last year. This week, the quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell sharply, from 15066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 7.74%.

From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them were used as they were mined, and the manufacturers had less inventory. From the supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. India bid: India RCF issued a new round of urea import bidding on May 18 and opened the bid on May 25. Purchase quantity and price will affect the next domestic urea market trend. On the whole, the urea cost support this week is general, the downstream demand is better, and the urea supply is tight.

More profits, more stable prices in the future

In late May, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on May 24 was 5333.33 yuan / ton, up 0.95% from the previous day and 2.56% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Looking back last week, the supply of raw material yellow phosphorus was short of demand, and the price soared. The phosphoric acid market was cautious and had the intention to increase. On the 24th, the yellow phosphorus market price continued to rise, breaking through 20000 yuan, with a one-day increase of about 13%. The cost support was strong, so the phosphoric acid market price rose, with the range of 50-700 yuan / ton, and some enterprises’ quotations rose above 6000 yuan, There are also some enterprises that have not offered new prices yet, but tend to increase obviously, and the overall market focus has moved up. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 24, the quotation in Sichuan was 4950-5650 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was 4800-5650 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5600-6200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 5900 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 5800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 5500-5600 yuan / ton, The price of phosphoric acid has increased in different areas.

On May 24, the reference price of phosphate rock was 510.00, up 6.25% compared with 480.00 on May 1. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is good, and the yellow phosphorus Market in the lower reaches is also slightly pushed up, which is effectively supported by the upper and lower reaches. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Yellow phosphorus, in late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus. So far, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 23000-25000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 21000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the supply of raw material yellow phosphorus exceeds the demand, and the soaring price drives the price trend of phosphoric acid. The enterprises actively follow the trend, and some enterprises close their offer and stop reporting. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to rise in the short term under the strong support of cost.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the average price of the main domestic light potassium carbonate factory tax included in the early Zhou was 6750.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream factory tax included in the factory was 6720.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.44%, and the current price fell 2.21% on a month basis, and the current price rose 7.52% year on year.

The domestic market of potassium carbonate has declined in recent years. The market of potassium carbonate market is generally supplied with the same source of goods, the downstream is maintaining the demand, the mood of goods preparation is weak, the purchasing intention is low, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate is flat, and the market is slightly down. According to statistics of business agency: the main ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6400-7000 yuan / ton (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is at a high level: on May 21, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory quotation is about 2400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On May 21, the sales price of potassium chloride of Anhui Badao Chemical Co., Ltd. was about 2650 yuan / ton, and the quotation was stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Recently, the potassium chloride market was in high consolidation, and port inventory continued to decrease, and the price remained high.

The analysts of potassium carbonate of business agency believe that the domestic potassium chloride market is in a state of stop sale and waiting in the near future. Large traders mainly cherish the sale and the cost is supported well. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will be mainly increased in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be seen（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.