The price of ethylene oxide remained stable this week, and the price in East China was 7800 yuan / ton.

Upstream, ethylene prices in Northeast Asia rose today, mainly driven by hurricanes in the United States (expected to affect about 6.4 million tons of ethylene production capacity, accounting for 16% of the total production capacity in the United States) and concerns about the epidemic situation in Asia, as well as the steady rise of crude oil, which provided strong support for the cost side. For EO production enterprises that export ethylene, the supply of raw ethylene is insufficient, and they may face delayed start-up or low load operation. According to the current ethylene price, the profit margin of ethylene oxide is about 400 yuan. In terms of downstream monomers, the market generally has a low willingness to receive goods, the demand side continues to be weak, the contradiction between supply and demand increases, monomers sell goods at a profit, while the terminal continues to lower the price, resulting in a continuous decline in the monomer market. At present, the monomer market price is mostly around 8600-9000, and the market looks hollow step by step.

It is temporarily stable in the short term and is expected to weaken in the middle and later period.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate rose rapidly this week, and the rising range was increasing. On September 2, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 122000 yuan / ton, which was 8.93% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 112000 yuan / ton on August 29). On September 2, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 128800 yuan / ton, which was 8.97% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 118200 yuan / ton on August 29). As of September 2, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 113000 ~ 134000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 123000 ~ 140000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise rapidly this week, and the rising range was increasing. The current price can be in the violent stage. The rising price is due to the rising price of raw materials of upstream lithium ore, which drives the cost increase. Then Pilbara will hold a second auction in September, which will also affect the subsequent development of lithium carbonate price. Second, at present, the supply of lithium carbonate is relatively tight and the market demand is increasing. September October may be two months after the production jump after the downstream production capacity is put into operation, and the tension between supply and demand may become serious.

Downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide prices rose strongly, raw material prices rose, costs were under pressure, market supply and demand performed well, and prices continued to rise. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the recent price is stable, the focus of negotiation is high, the supply and demand is balanced, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is cautious.

On September 1, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 303.69, up 11.21 points from yesterday, down 25.03% from the highest point 405.10 in the cycle (2018-01-07), and up 208.19% from the lowest point 98.54 on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The lithium carbonate analyst of business society believes that the current market demand for lithium carbonate is very tight, and the orders of some enterprises in September have been negotiated and sold. With the amplification effect of downstream expansion, the demand for lithium salt will continue to increase, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Zinc prices fell again on September 1

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price on September 1 was 22613.33 yuan / ton, down 0.72% from 22776.67 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (August 31). On September 1, the zinc price fell slightly, and the zinc market fell slightly.

The third national release and storage regulation

In order to maintain the supply and price of bulk commodities, according to the Announcement No. 2 of the State Food and Material Reserve Bureau in 2021, it is decided to put the third batch of national reserve zinc in 2021 on September 1, with a total sales volume of 50000 tons. The reserve zinc is put into the market again to cool the zinc market, restrain the rise of zinc price, and increase the pressure on the decline of zinc price.

Overview and Outlook

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business society, believes that after two national release and storage regulation, the zinc price is relatively stable and the zinc market returns to calm. With the advent of the golden nine and silver ten, the desire of the zinc market rose. On September 1, the state lowered the storage for the third time, stabilized the zinc price and cooled the zinc market in advance. The zinc price fell on September 1. In the future, the market of gold, silver and ten is still in progress, and the demand of zinc market is still in existence. The dumping of reserves has alleviated the supply pressure of zinc market, but the overall upward momentum of zinc market is still in existence, and the downward pressure is increasing. It is expected that the range of zinc market will be adjusted in the future.

In August, the domestic phenol market first restrained and then rose, and the rise and fall were followed by the end. The phenol market was quoted at 9225 yuan / ton at the end of the month and at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9225 yuan / ton on August 1, 9225 yuan / ton on August 31, 8700 yuan / ton on August 9, and the phenol Market amplitude was 5.69%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China was 9200 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 9150 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 9300 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol commodity ex factory price index in East China in 2021

In terms of units, the start-up of domestic phenol ketone units was 90% in August, and the phenol ketone units of Yangzhou Shiyou and Sinopec third well were put into load operation. However, Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit had a shutdown maintenance plan in September, and the overall start-up is expected to decline next month.

In terms of raw materials, Sinopec’s pure benzene decreased significantly during the month, with a decrease of 600 yuan / ton, and there was little adjustment in propylene. Overall, the cost of phenol decreased, and the profit value of phenol ketone unit increased.

Downstream bisphenol A continues to operate at a high level, but most of bisphenol A are Petrochemical supporting devices, which has little impact on the phenol Market, other downstream changes such as phenolic resin have little, and the overall demand has declined.

From the perspective of business community, the import volume of the Middle East and Taiwan decreased in September, and the domestic factories had a shutdown and maintenance plan in September. It is expected that the overall supply side will decline. Under the condition that the demand side remains unchanged, the market is worth playing a role in September and is expected to increase. However, at present, the downstream demand is poor and the procurement just needs to be followed up. In the medium and long term, we should continue to pay attention to the changes of terminal demand, The business community expects the phenol Market range to be sorted and operated.

Commodity index: on August 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.88% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 8.72% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the data of business society, in the fourth week of August, the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was 14750 yuan / ton, and the price was stable.

Upstream raw materials:

According to the data monitoring of business society, the acrylic acid market has continued to rise since two months, as shown in the figure above: the acrylic acid market has weakened as a whole this week. The price of raw propylene rose slightly, the cost support was limited, and the overall operating rate of the acrylic acid market increased slightly, but the demand side was light, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was poor, so they were more cautious and wait-and-see, the carrier was in the mood of shipping, and the focus of market negotiation was downward: as of August 27, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 15266.67 yuan / ton, Compared with Monday’s price, it fell 2.14%.

The price of acrylonitrile, another main raw material of polyacrylamide, increased by 100 yuan / ton on the 25th. At present, the main quotation is about 14900 yuan / ton.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and rose. On August 23, the mainstream quotation was 5593.33 yuan / ton to 5703.33 yuan / ton. According to the analysis of business society, at present, the cost is supported, the price is not easy to fall sharply, mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the LNG market continues to operate at a high level.

Downstream demand: due to the impact of Rainstorm in the early stage, the logistics transportation is limited, and the downstream demand is blocked. According to the introduction of enterprises in the main production area, the impact is gradually decreasing in the later stage. Except that the price of some raw materials is high due to the tension of shutdown, the road continues to recover. It is reported that at the end of the third week, Gongyi suffered another rainstorm disaster, but the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened. Some areas were shut down for a few days, the degree of disaster was greatly reduced, and the production of local enterprises was not greatly affected. In Shandong and other parts of China, the weather this week has little impact on water treatment enterprises. It is reported that the current demand has not changed significantly, and the purchase price has not changed much.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business society, since August, the external influence has gradually subsided. Looking back to the industrial chain, the upstream raw materials rise and fall differently, and the downstream demand is stable, which has little impact on the market with sufficient spot. At present, the market outlook is mainly stable, and it is expected that there will be a certain demand growth in the peak consumption season.