1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on September 17, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 10125 yuan / ton, up 262.5 yuan compared with 9862.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 2.66% during the week, 8.14% compared with the beginning of the month and 52.14% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market stabilized first and then rose. Near the weekend, the price rose rapidly. The enterprise increased by about 250-350 yuan / ton, and the price continued to rise. The rise of PVC prices this week was mainly driven by the strong disk. The PVC futures price rose again to more than 10000 yuan. The highest price in the week was 10285, breaking through 10090 last week, driving the rise of spot market prices. In addition, due to the impact of macro policies, most enterprises are now offering more than 10000 yuan, and the market focus has shifted upward. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was generally stable, the price was adjusted in a narrow range, and the futures price weakened slightly, but the spot market was not strong in falling intention due to cost support, and the trend was still strong; On Wednesday, Yulin’s “double control” policy was introduced, including raw calcium carbide. Boosted by the news, the disk strengthened on the same day, and the PVC futures price rose rapidly, driving the spot price to rise sharply; Over the weekend, PVC futures prices fell, but the spot market did not follow the decline, and the price was still high.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 10000-10300 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 10250-10350 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 10200-10400 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 10260-10350 yuan / ton; Market prices rose throughout the week.

region workmanship 9 / 17 (yuan / ton) 9 / 13 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 10130-10250 10050-10130 + 80/+120 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 10100-10250 10080-10130 + 20/+120 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 10020-10120 9920-10000 + 100/+120 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 9950-10200 9800-9950 + 150/+250 Delivered

For international crude oil, on September 16, the international oil price was basically unchanged from the previous trading day. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $72.61/barrel, with an increase or decrease of 0. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $75.67/barrel, with an increase of US $0.21 or 0.3%. Due to the reduced possibility of another hurricane, the crude oil production crisis in the US Gulf region has been temporarily lifted, but at the same time, there are still some unrecovered production to support the oil price.

Ethylene, the ethylene market in the external market showed an upward trend as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 16th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1106-1116 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1046-1056 / T. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 16th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1227-1237 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1163-1170 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 16th, the price was US $813-830 / ton. Recently, the overall demand of the external ethylene market is OK, showing an upward trend with little increase. The recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe is mainly small.

Calcium carbide, business agency: on September 17, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose, the price of blue carbon in the upstream was adjusted at a high level, the cost support was good, the PVC market in the downstream was adjusted at a high level, the demand for calcium carbide increased, the environmental protection in Inner Mongolia was liberalized, and the output of calcium carbide increased. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid September.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the higher PVC futures price drives the price rise in the spot market, but the transaction atmosphere of high-priced PVC is negative. Downstream procurement still maintains rigid demand before the Mid Autumn Festival, the replenishment mood is not positive, it is difficult to digest the rapidly rising PVC raw material price, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. It is expected that the PVC market has a high probability of adhesion in the short term, and the price may tend to be stable.

On September 16, the rare earth index was 595 points, the same as yesterday, down 40.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 119.56% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has declined, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has declined by 2500 yuan / ton to 600000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 740000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 640000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 6275000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 815000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 765000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2705000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.66 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.44 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have fallen. The recent procurement is general, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series is stable. Recently, the price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, the price trend of terbium series is rising, and the downstream procurement is not active. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will be stable in the later period.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. The average price of domestic fluorite is 2655.56 yuan / ton. The trading and trading of fluorite in the site is general. The mine is under construction due to the influence of environmental protection inspectors. The price of fluorite raw ore is high. The flotation plant is unwilling to ship at a low price. The downstream hydrofluoric acid industry starts normally and the demand for fluorite is normal, In addition, the fluorite plant in the North started normally, there was little change in supply, the contradiction between supply and demand was intensified, and the price trend of fluorite in the site was temporarily stable. The mainstream trend of fluorite negotiation in the venue has not changed much. The delivery price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, that in Fujian is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangxi is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, but the downstream refrigerant price continues to rise, It will bring some positive support to the upstream raw materials, and the domestic fluorite price is expected to rise steadily.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the current price of domestic PTA recovered slightly today (September 14). The average price in the spot market was 4890 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 1.51% and a year-on-year increase of 39.85%; The closing price of 2201, the main futures, was 4946, up 2.11%.

For the overhaul of some PTA units, Honggang petrochemical 1#1.5 million ton and 2#2.4 million ton PTA units (half of which are under overhaul) are planned to start maintenance for about one week today. As of September 13, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry is around 81%, which is expected to decline in the later stage, so the PTA inventory accumulation speed is suspended. Superimposed on the rise of crude oil, the support for PTA cost was enhanced. As of September 13, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was reported as $70.45/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was reported as $73.51/barrel. Boosted by raw materials, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the downstream increased slightly, and some manufacturers increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, but the transaction continued to be light.

Business analysts believe that PTA is still expected to accumulate stocks slightly at present, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants has fallen to 84%. Procurement is cautious. In the state of increasing supply and decreasing demand, PTA continues to rise, which is not driven enough. We still need to pay attention to the changes in the demand side of the “golden nine silver ten” in the later stage.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rose sharply this week. On September 12, the average price of Shandong market was 3029.75 yuan / ton, which was 6.87% higher than that of 2835.00 yuan / ton on September 6.

On September 12, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 235.65, the same as yesterday, down 0.49% from the highest point of 236.81 in the cycle (2021-09-09), and up 252.29% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

With the commencement of coke production in the inspection and repair plant, the supply of petroleum coke has increased, but at present, the imported petroleum coke resources have decreased, the self consumption of petroleum coke in some refineries has increased, the inventory of refineries is low, the downstream demand is good, the trading is active, and the price of locally refined petroleum coke has increased significantly.

Upstream: the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the market mainly focused on the recovery time of production capacity affected in the Gulf of Mexico after the hurricane, poor employment data in the United States, downward stock market and the spread of delta virus. The main tone of the market is bearish oil market.

Downstream: the price of petroleum coke in the upstream continues to rise, and the price of calcined coke rises; Metal silicon market rose sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of September 12, the price was 22650.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were methanol (7.93%), dimethyl ether (7.42%) and coking coal (7.10%). There are four commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products are liquefied natural gas (- 2.31%), WTI crude oil (- 1.66%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.60%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.56%.

The petroleum coke analyst of business society believes that the inventory of local refineries is low recently, some refineries are mainly for their own use, and the downstream demand is good. It is expected that petroleum coke may rise in the near future.