1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in November was 3074.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2295.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 778.25 yuan / ton and a monthly decrease of 25.32%.

On December 1, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 180.50, up 1.94 points from yesterday, down 31.16% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 169.85% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in November, local petroleum coke continued to decline sharply. Recently, the operating rate of local refineries has increased, with positive shipment and general trading. The inventory of some refineries is high, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is general, and the goods are prepared carefully.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell sharply in November. Firstly, since the middle of the year, the outbreak of the European epidemic has aroused investors’ concerns about the demand prospect, and the oil price began to enter the downward channel. Second, in order to deal with domestic inflation, the United States has been committed to suppressing the decline of oil prices. On the 19th, it announced that it would unite with multinational governments to release strategic oil reserves. Affected by supply expectations, oil prices are falling sharply. Finally, on the 26th, a new crown variant strain was found, causing market panic, market concerns about the recovery of future demand, a huge earthquake in the capital market, and oil prices fell sharply with the global stock market.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell in November; The metal silicon market fell sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell. As of November 30, the price was 18876.67 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in November 2021, the energy sector rose month on month, with naphtha (0.81%). A total of 15 commodities fell month on month, and 14 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 87.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coke (- 39.62%), coking coal (- 31.52%) and petroleum coke (- 25.32%). The average rise and fall this month was – 14.38%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the operating rate of local refining manufacturers has increased recently, the inventory of petroleum coke is high, the shipment is general, the downstream demand is weakened, the procurement enthusiasm is general, and the goods are prepared carefully. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in December.

In November, the domestic acetone market fell sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the offer in East China market was 6400 yuan / ton on November 1 and 5550 yuan / ton on November 30. The overall shock and decline in November, and the overall decline in East China market was 13.28%. In the national market, the offer in East China reached 5550 yuan / ton by the end of the month, and the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 5675 yuan / ton, The offer in South China is 5650 yuan / ton.

From the raw material side, pure benzene maintained a range shock trend in early November; It began to fall continuously in the latter ten days, and the price width weakened. On November 1, the price was 7550-7803 yuan / ton (the average price was 7640 yuan / ton); On November 30, the price was 6150-6650 yuan / ton (the average price was 6390 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on November 1, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on November 30, the price was 6390 yuan / ton. This month decreased by 16.36%, up 52.51% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest price in the month was 1250 yuan / ton. Affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, the pure benzene market mentality continued to be suppressed in the first half of the month, with the trend dominated by weak shocks. It is expected that the downstream units will restart and new units will be put into operation, the supply and demand side is expected to be good, and the market price support psychology still exists. In late November, the decline of crude oil expanded, styrene maintained a continuous downward trend, and the upstream and downstream support of pure benzene was weak. In terms of supply, the load of a large unit in East China is increased, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in December; The arrival of cargo at East China port is concentrated, and the inventory rises rapidly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the later stage. Multiple bad news superimposed, and the price of pure benzene fell rapidly. In the first half of November, the price of Sinopec remained stable, and in the second half of the month, the price was reduced four times, from 1150 yuan / ton to 6350-6450 yuan / ton.

In November, the overall performance of propylene market was more than enough, and the price was pushed up several times, but it was finally weak. At the beginning of the month, due to the sharp decline of international oil prices, the price of propylene accelerated to fall. At the same time, the overall downstream demand was general and the demand support was insufficient. After falling prices at the beginning of the month, propylene prices rebounded slightly in the second week, and then began to stabilize. However, there was no obvious positive factor support in the market, the price loosened and began to fluctuate and fall. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of new orders, lack of downstream gas, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials has declined as a whole. Under the constraints of cost and demand, the price of enterprises has been continuously reduced in order to ship goods smoothly.

From the perspective of business agency, there was little change in the start-up of domestic units in December, and it was difficult to make a wide adjustment in the acetone market. From the downstream, the production of 100000 t / a MMA unit of lihuayi refining is worthy of attention. The supply side of subsequent imported goods is sufficient, but the cost of external goods is high, the supply is not under pressure, and the holder has little intention to lower the price, but it is difficult to improve the demand side. The business agency expects the acetone market to fluctuate in December.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline showed a ladder downward trend in November, with a small decline in the first ten days, and the price fell broadly near the end of the month. On November 1, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14500 yuan / ton; On November 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9300-9500 yuan / ton, down 34.82% from the beginning of the month and up 22.57% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the prices of crude oil and styrene fell continuously, and the price of pure benzene fell broadly in the month under the pressure of multiple bad news such as the accumulation of pure benzene port inventory. On January 1, the price was 7550-7803 yuan / ton (average price 7640 yuan / ton), and on November 30, the price was 6150-6650 yuan / ton (average price 6390 yuan / ton), a decrease of 16.36% this month and an increase of 52.51% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: this month, the nitric acid market was dragged down by the decline of raw material price and insufficient demand, coupled with the increase of enterprise inventory pressure, and the quotation continued to weaken. The price of nitric acid in East China was 3286.67 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2533.33 yuan / ton on November 30, down 22.92% from the beginning of the month and up 40.74% from the same period last year.

At the beginning of this month, Shandong Jinmao and Dongying Huatai aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply of aniline maintained a tight pattern, but the cost was weak and volatile, the downstream purchase was dominated by rigid demand, the market lacked favorable support, and the price remained stable. With the restart of Jinmao and Huatai units, the supply in Shandong increased, the downstream enthusiasm was not high, the consumption of raw material inventory was the main, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the price began to decline. In the middle of the month, a 100000 t / a unit in Jinling was shut down for maintenance, but it did not give a big boost to the market. Aniline market continues to weaken along with raw materials. At the end of the month, the quotation of Yantai Wanhua aniline was significantly reduced, the mentality of the industry was bad, the shipping mood was strong, and the price was continuously reduced by a wide margin.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, there are still incoming shipments in the later stage, and the port inventory is expected to continue to rise. The short-term trend of crude oil and styrene is weak, and the market rebound is weak. Restart of some downstream units or increased demand for pure benzene. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to run weakly, and there is still a possibility of decline, but the decline is limited.

In terms of nitric acid, the raw material support is insufficient, the market demand for nitric acid is poor, the enterprise inventory pressure is high, and the price of nitric acid is expected to be dominated by weak operation.

The prices of pure benzene and nitric acid are both low. On the supply side, Shandong Jinling and Jiangsu Fuqiang aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, the load of Nanhua plant was increased, the supply in Shandong was stable, and the sales in East China increased. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high price aniline. Overall, the cost support of aniline is weak and the spot supply is loose, but after a wide decline, it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic spandex market fluctuated downward in November. As of November 29, the average market price was 77600 yuan / ton, down 3.72% from the beginning of the month and up 88.81% year-on-year. The start-up of spandex manufacturers increased to a high of 880%, the spot supply in the market was stable, and the manufacturers actively shipped, but the market trading atmosphere was light and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 98000-103000 87000-89000 76000-77000

Shandong 100000-103000 88000-90000 70000-78000

Fujian 100000-103000 88000-90000 77000-78000

Jiangsu 100000-103000 87000-89000 76000-77000

In November, the raw materials were pure MDI market, the spot was tight and the market rebounded. However, the demand in the downstream of the terminal was just depressed, and the market fell back after a short rebound, mainly showing a narrow decline. And near the end of the month, there are many sources of goods from Japan and South Korea to Hong Kong, and the mainstream quotation in the market is lower. As of the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation in the domestic market is 21500-22300 yuan / ton, which is 1700-2000 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month.

PTMEG market consolidation was maintained. At present, the mainstream factories with 1800 molecular weight sources offer around 47000-49000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month. However, due to the stability of upstream BDO prices, the price support mentality of the factories was obvious, and the industrial commencement increased slightly by 83%.

Affected by the gradual slowdown in the shipment of flannelette and other fabrics in autumn and winter, the startup rate of large circular machine decreased locally, and the round machine and yarn wrapping started in Xiaoshao area is around 50%. The operating level of the round knitting machine and yarn wrapping Market in Jiangsu is 40-50%, the orders in the downstream market in Guangdong are slightly followed up, and the operating level of the round knitting machine, yarn wrapping and warp knitting market is 50-70%. At present, the undelivered orders in the hands of knitting factories can be achieved at the beginning of next month, and the factories with sufficient orders can be achieved at the end of next month. However, some factories have no orders and mainly focus on production inventory. They generally lack confidence in the future market and focus on cautious procurement of spandex.

In terms of the textile industry, according to the textile index of business society, the textile industry weakened in November. As of November 29, the textile index was 1044 points, down 49 points from 1093 points at the beginning of the month, down 9.69% from 1156 points (2018-09-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 53.30% from 681 points, the lowest point on August 13, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of exports, China’s textile and garment exports in October amounted to US $28.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. Among them, the export of textiles in that month was US $12.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and the positive growth in a single month has resumed for the first time since the second quarter of this year. In October, garment exports reached US $16.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%.

Business analysts believe that the high price of raw materials fell slightly, but the supporting role of the cost side can still be adhered to. However, at present, the demand side is slow to follow up, which is bad for the price of spandex. Especially with the domestic autumn and winter orders or gradually ending, the trading atmosphere will be insufficient, and the market weakness will intensify. It is expected that the short-term price of spandex will still maintain a downward trend.

Commodity index: on November 26, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 109.98, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.37% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 32.68% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market fluctuated slightly this week (22-26), about 17750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and about 18000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.41%.

From the perspective of industry, the market trend of petrochemical raw materials has weakened recently, and the cost pressure of raw materials related to water treatment has decreased; Due to the influence of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, production is limited and production is stopped in many places, the commencement of basic chemicals is affected, the market price difference is large, limited by the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products is stable, and some are adjusted to a small extent. Among them, the market of raw material acrylonitrile decreased by 50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and then maintained at about 15250 yuan / ton. So far this month, the decrease range is about 200 yuan / ton.

Raw material acrylic acid: the recent acrylic acid Market stopped falling and rose. On the 26th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 16866.67 yuan / ton, up 3.27% from 16333.33 yuan / ton on the 22nd of the week. Driven by the rising price of raw propylene, the cost of acrylic acid is rising, and the plant unit is gradually entering the maintenance stage. It is expected that the short-term market of acrylic acid may be stable and upward.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 7276.67 yuan / ton on the 22nd and 7363.33 yuan / ton on the 26th, up 1.19% week on week. After early price reduction sales, the price of domestic LNG hovered around the cost line. Due to cost considerations and limited shipment of Huanggang, the liquid price was boosted. Restricted by poor demand, the increase was small. It is expected that the domestic LNG will be stable in the future.

As for the future, the price trend of raw materials is generally weak and the demand is weak. The market quotation changes little, but subject to the environmental protection in winter and the dual control policy in some regions, the market generally predicts that the market price will rise after the manufacturer’s production is limited in the later stage. However, at present, the price is mainly stable and fluctuates slightly.