According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on December 17 was 40.45, an increase of 0.21 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 59.55% compared with the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and an increase of 48.28% compared with the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period since 2011-09-01)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the first half of December 2021

According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), the price of domestic natural rubber in China continued to fluctuate in the first half of December 2021, showing a “V” trend: the mainstream price on the 1st was about 13770 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 17th was about 13670 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.94%; among them, the highest price appeared at 13770 yuan / ton on the 1st, the lowest price was 13200 yuan / ton on the 9th, and the maximum amplitude in the half month was 3.33%.

On the macro level, the international crude oil fundamentals are in a long and short game. The Omicron strain still hinders the economic recovery. Recently, IEA’s expectation of excess crude oil supply continues to pressurize the oil price. However, OPEC + maintains a moderate increase in production policy, tight supply forms a strong support for the oil market, and the crude oil price may rise slightly.

On the supply side, China’s Yunnan production areas have stopped cutting one after another, and the rainfall weather in southern Thailand affects the output. With the reduction of China’s output, the global market has entered an annual tight supply period at the end of the year, and the support on the supply side has been strengthened. In terms of import and export, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 661000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in November 2021, down 7% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2020.

In the downstream, the tire factory started cautiously, focusing on controlling the inventory level. As of December 9, the operating rate of all steel tires was 64.26%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points month on month; The operating rate of semi steel tire was 63.77%, with a month on month increase of 1.6 percentage points; Domestic heavy truck sales continued to show weakness: according to the data, in November, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell 48000 vehicles of various types (the number of invoices) decreased by 10% month on month and 65% year-on-year. The data of commercial vehicles are weak: in November, China’s production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 353000 and 330000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 3.2% and 1.1% respectively; a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 30.3% respectively, with a decrease of 5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with October. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 18% and 17.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 10 points Do not expand by 13.7 and 8.7 percentage points. The market demand for commercial vehicles in the second half of the year was weaker than that in the first half of the year. The finished products of tire enterprises accumulated again, and the cost increased significantly, resulting in a number of tire manufacturers continuously issuing price increase notices.

In terms of inventory, recently, the warehousing of large and medium-sized warehouses in Qingdao has decreased slightly month on month, the outbound has increased, and the local general trade inventory has accelerated to go to the warehouse week on month: on December 9, the inventory in the bonded area was 65200 tons, a decrease of 11000 tons compared with last week, a decrease of 1.66% month on month. The inventory outside the bonded area was 252800 tons, a decrease of 11000 tons compared with last week, a month on month decrease of 0.43%. The total inventory was 318000 tons, a decrease of 2200 tons compared with last week, a month on month decrease of 0.69%.

In terms of transportation, the freight industry is in a downturn, the export transportation cost of Thai Tianjiao is rising, the cabin is tight, the shipping schedule is delayed, and the arrival volume increases slowly.

Figure 4: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

Future forecast: it is expected that natural rubber will maintain a range shock trend in the short term, and pay attention to the progress of cutting cessation in China, rainfall in foreign production areas, as well as the operating rate and inventory of downstream factories.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on the 16th, the copper price fell slightly. The spot price was 68508.33 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from the previous day, up 18.21% from the beginning of the year and 18.28% year-on-year.

US inflation continued to soar, and copper fell $131 overnight. The domestic economic data in November was lower than expected, which depressed the copper price. Downstream power and production restrictions are ended, mostly to digest early orders. In November, the operating rate of copper cables rose back to 85.55%, with a month on month increase of 5.1%. It is expected that the operating rate of cables will decline again in December. The operating rate of domestic copper rods was 65.79%, down 2.31% on a week-on-week basis. Meanwhile, the supply of scrap copper continued to be tight. Copper inventory is low, and the short-term copper price may maintain a narrow shock trend.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 15): 8570 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 15, the main PVC contract 2205 closed at 805, down 2.86%. The futures fell, driving the spot market to continue to fall. On December 15, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8570 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from the previous day. The reduction range of enterprises was mostly in the range of 50-300 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price is 8300-8800 yuan / ton. Enterprises continue to reduce prices to sell for shipment, However, in the off-season of demand, the market trading is relatively flat, coupled with the decline of raw materials, the market has strong negative factors.

Forecast: PVC prices are expected to continue to weaken in the short term.

On December 14, the rare earth index was 801 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 19.90% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and increased by 195.57% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 852500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 10350000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 885000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 88000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 115000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1115000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2945000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.78 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have fallen, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, while the price of terbium series is maintained, and the downstream procurement is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 215600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 228000 yuan / ton

Analysis: the price rise of lithium carbonate continues to increase. Due to the increasingly serious mood of goods preparation at the end of the year, the market procurement volume continues to increase. The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in the downstream also increased significantly, so the demand for lithium carbonate continued to increase. At present, the inventory of traders has decreased, the reduction in the domestic market is obvious, and the supply of goods is relatively tight.

Forecast: at present, the substantial expansion of lithium iron phosphate production leads to the increasing purchase of upstream raw material lithium carbonate, and the price of lithium carbonate has been bid up. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise in the short term.