The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 24 was 5091.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the sharp deterioration of the situation in Ukraine triggered market shocks, the price of crude oil exceeded the 100 yuan mark, and the sharp rise in commodity prices exacerbated concerns about inflation and economic growth risks. Ethylene glycol is stronger than the previous market, but the overall supply and demand pressure is large, and the social inventory continues to accumulate slightly. Downstream polyester procurement slowed down, polyester closing price fell slightly, manufacturers intended to control inventory, and terminal orders were weak.

Forecast: the cost rises slightly, but the market is still dragged down by the downstream. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the recovery of the demand side. In the short term, it is expected to be low and wide.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (February 23): 8570 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8570 yuan / ton on February 23, down 0.23% from the previous trading day and up 4.35% year-on-year. At present, the macro atmosphere has weakened, the fundamentals of PVC have not changed greatly, the PVC market is still weak, and the prices rise and fall. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4050-4150 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8300-8750 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to be stable and weak.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (February 22): 2253.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of sulfur in East China today increased by 2.27% compared with yesterday. The domestic sulfur market was reorganized upward. The price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong increased by 50 yuan / ton simultaneously. The price of solid sulfur in North China was temporarily stable, the price of liquid sulfur increased by 50 yuan / ton, the price of solid sulfur in East China increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur increased by 80 yuan / ton. There is no inventory pressure in domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid market is improving, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the port supply inventory is less, the cargo holders have strong intention to support the price, it is difficult to find low prices, and the price of liquid sulfur in regional refineries is rising; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market will remain stable for the time being, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3646 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate rose on February 11, up 0.69% compared with the previous trading day. Today, the market of diammonium chloride is advancing steadily, with sufficient early orders, and the enterprise owners issue early orders. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the arrival quotation of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang in Yunnan Guizhou is 3750-3850 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

Future forecast: in the short term, the price of diammonium phosphate will run steadily and well.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 18, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4904.67 yuan / kg, up 1.07% on a daily basis, up 1.27% from the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the holiday (January 31).

On February 18, the spot market price of gold was 383.71 yuan / g, up 0.64% on a daily basis, up 3.07% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Geopolitical superposition tight monetary expectation suppresses risk appetite

The news from Russia and Ukraine exacerbated market risk aversion. Although the war forecast of public opinion in the early stage of the United States and Britain went bankrupt, the fundamentals of the geopolitical game surrounding the Ukrainian issue have not subsided recently. US President Joe Biden said that now all the evidence shows that Russia plans to invade Ukraine, while Russia accused the United States of ignoring its security requirements. Europe is experiencing one of the most serious crises in Post Cold War relations. Russia wants security assurances, including that Ukraine will never join NATO, while the United States and its allies provide arms control and mutual trust building measures. Geopolitics triggered a surge in risk aversion.

U.S. inflation data continued to ferment, and the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding interest free gold. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on February 16, the UK consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.5% year-on-year in January, the highest in nearly 30 years. Britain’s CPI has remained high for months. The Bank of England, the Central Bank of England, said the UK inflation rate would continue to rise and could reach 7.25% in April. Kazimir, the Governing Committee of the European Central Bank, supports the end of quantitative easing in August, improves the flexibility of interest rate hikes, and proposes that it is best to implement monetary tightening gradually.

Future forecast

Japan’s core consumer prices rose for the fifth consecutive month in January, but the rate of rise slowed compared with the previous month, increasing the possibility that the pace of interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan will lag behind other economies. In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to rise and fall.