1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 10th, the nickel price fell sharply, and the spot price was reported as 241216.67 yuan / ton, down 22.22% from the previous trading day and up 96.8% year-on-year.

Affected by the delivery announcement issued by Castle Peak, all nickel prices fell by the limit except for the contracts in recent months. According to media reports, Castle Peak holdings replaced domestic metal nickel plates with its high matte nickel and deployed spot delivery through various channels. The nickel price market has begun to break away from the scope of fundamentals and enter the game of the market for inventory and warehouse delivery, and the market trend is more uncertain. The short-term nickel price is expected to fluctuate sharply.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 9): 9000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 9000 yuan / ton on March 9, up 1.35% compared with the previous trading day and 4.65% year-on-year. At present, the disk is relatively strong and volatile, and the PVC market price continues to rise, with a range of about 50-150 yuan / ton. Some dealers are closed and wait-and-see, and the market focus continues to move up, but the high price transaction is general. At present, the price of PVC raw material is about 4200-8850 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to rise steadily.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the market price of 1# antimony ingots in East China was 80000 yuan / ton on March 8, unchanged from the previous trading day.

After the price of antimony ingots rose, it was temporarily stable. The seller’s attitude of being reluctant to sell was strengthened recently. The market trading was relatively enthusiastic, the market price rose, and a small amount of replenishment transactions were made in the downstream. The overall trading of the market was still weak, and it was still mainly on demand. It is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend. The future market will focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (March 7): 7300 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the cryolite market in Henan is up, and the average production price in Henan is up 0.69% from yesterday. Due to the shortage of cryolite raw materials and the impact of the international situation, the cost pressure of using natural gas by individual enterprises increases, the manufacturer’s inventory is low, the market quotation is strong, and the downstream demand is stable. Enterprises negotiate shipment. In the short-term price situation, we also need to pay attention to the enterprise’s commencement and inventory. At present, the market is in a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: wait and see the cryolite market and pay attention to the market supply.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of March 4, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is 12233 yuan / ton. Compared with February 28 (the ex factory price of butanone is 12533 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that the domestic butanone market fell first and then rose this week, and the overall situation is still declining, with a decline of 2.39% during the week. At the beginning of this week (March 1), affected by the cold downstream demand and low purchase enthusiasm, the confidence of butanone industry was frustrated. The air atmosphere in the field was strengthened, the domestic butanone market was in danger and fell, and the manufacturers had great shipping pressure. The offer price was reduced by 300-500 yuan / ton. On March 1, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was near 11800-12300 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the market was weak and the wait-and-see mood did not decrease. On the 3rd, the domestic butanone market adjusted downward again in a narrow range, with a reduction range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. Supported by the sharp rise of crude oil, the cost support of butanone has been strengthened, the mentality of the operators has improved, and the willingness to make profits for shipment has weakened. On the 4th, the quotation of butanone factory increased slightly under the cost support, with an increase range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of butanone is around 12000-12400 yuan / ton. At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the butanone venue has improved, and the actual volume of orders is still cautious.

Upstream, this week, the domestic liquefied gas market showed an overall upward trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on March 3, the reference price of liquefied gas in Shandong was 6590 yuan / ton, up 5.51% during the week compared with March 1 (6246 yuan / ton). The decline of international crude oil has brought some bad news to the market. The downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, limited enthusiasm to enter the market, some upstream inventories are under pressure, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general. Price consolidation is expected to be the main trend in the short term.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the transaction of butanone market is still cautious. The butanone datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of butanone supply and demand.