The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 24 was 5000 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Up 0.40% year-on-year.

The oil price fluctuated in a narrow range under the long short game in the crude oil market due to the possible economic recession and domestic restrictions on the epidemic, as well as the expectation of tight global supply and the recovery of fuel demand in the US summer driving season. It fell by nearly US $1 on Tuesday. Today, Meg’s external market is lower, buyers are mainly on the sidelines, and the recent negotiated price of shipping is around us $600 / ton. Ethylene glycol goes to the warehouse slowly, the inventory level is high, the port shipment volume decreases, and the demand continues to be depressed. Recently, the polyester operating rate has remained around 80%, mainly contract goods, the market wait-and-see atmosphere continues, and the terminal preparation is cautious.

Forecast: in the short term, the market has great upward resistance and low volatility.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 23): 8643.75 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on May 23, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8643.75 yuan / ton, down 0.19% from the previous trading day and 6.43% year-on-year. At present, the futures price has fallen, the offer in the spot market has fallen, the market trading is relatively flat, the downstream demand continues to maintain rigid demand, and the wait-and-see attitude is obvious. In addition, the export has weakened, which has suppressed the market atmosphere, the focus of the PVC market has shifted downward, and the transaction is more cautious. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4200-4500 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8300-8800 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to weaken.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10425 yuan / ton on May 20.

High coal tar cost or high coal tar cost in the domestic market in a week. On the demand side, the domestic demand in the downstream is average. Although the tire industry gradually recovered in May, there is still a gap compared with the normal situation, and the overall operating load of the industry is low. The comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises continues to rise, and the price has generally increased recently.

Under the current high cost of domestic carbon black, the current carbon black is operating at a high level, and the future trend depends on the downstream demand.

On May 19, the rare earth index was 832 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 17.38% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 207.01% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index declined slightly, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series fell, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide fell by 2500 yuan / ton to 932500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal fell by 2500 yuan / ton to 1127500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 945000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1225000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1155000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 2610000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 2.615 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.38 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price fell slightly. In the recent procurement, the price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell, the price of Terbium series fell, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned exports, and the domestic rare earth market price is expected to fall slightly in the later period.

Ethylene oxide remained stable, with the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China.

The supply of ethylene is abundant, and the bottom market continues. The latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1150 US dollars / ton, down 20 US dollars / ton compared with the price of the previous trading day. Affected by the decline of ethylene price, the profit space of ethylene oxide has been repaired. Based on the current external price and exchange rate, EO currently has a loss of about 250 yuan / ton. The real estate policy is good for the terminal, and the recovery of terminal demand is relatively slow. The inventory of monomer factories still needs time to digest, and the market is mainly on the sidelines.

Forecast: temporarily stable.