1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 18th, the average price of nickel spot market was 181966.67 yuan / ton, down 2.77% from the previous trading day and up 22.84% year-on-year.

Under the pressure of the strength of the US dollar, the trend of LUNI nickel fell back and closed down 2.56% the following week. With the resurgence of the domestic epidemic, the market liquidity has weakened, the nickel supply has turned to a surplus pattern, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Friday’s data showed that the credit data of China, the world’s No. 1 metal consumer, in July was significantly revised back, and the decline of new bank loans exceeded expectations, and metal prices were under pressure. In addition, the strong exchange rate of the US dollar also exerts pressure on metal prices. It was rumored that the nickel will be collected and stored, but it is expected that the nickel collection and storage will be small and the impact will be small.

In terms of fundamentals, the current nickel industry chain is weak as a whole, and the supply side has poor profits due to excess supply. In August, the domestic ferronickel output is expected to continue to decline, the domestic pure nickel spot premium is slightly expanded, and the import profit is narrowed. On the demand side, it is preliminarily predicted that the output of 200 and 400 series stainless steel will continue to decline in August, and the output of 300 series stainless steel will rise slightly on a month on month basis, but it is still lower than that of the same period on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, the power restriction in East China in August may continue to affect the production of stainless steel.

Forecast: the nickel price is greatly affected by macro factors, and the fundamentals are weak as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

This week, the domestic MIBK market is weak and downward, and the main focus of the mainstream market negotiation is small downward. The focus of market negotiation in East China has dropped to 10000 yuan / ton, and a few orders have fallen below 10000 yuan. The reference of market negotiation in South China is about 10100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of cost, the acetone market continues to decline. Although the recent overhaul of the raw material end acetone plant has increased, and the social supply is expected to decrease, the sluggish terminal purchase has consumed the good supply side. The acetone negotiation in East China is 4600 yuan / T, and the short-term acetone still has a narrow downward trend.

The overall change of the downstream demand side is not large, and it has been in a state of insufficient buying for a long time. The large households have low intention to purchase inventory, and the small households just need small orders, so the carriers have to give up profits to ship. In addition, the market negotiation has been declining under the influence of the external environment.

Next week, the negative cost side is expected to increase again, and the raw material acetone is still expected to fall. Next week, the downstream digestion contract is still in the middle and first ten days of the month. The supply side of MIBK is normal, and the shipment pressure is still large. It is expected that the weak adjustment will be made next week, and the negotiation in East China will be about 9900-10000 yuan / ton.

On August 11, the rare earth index was 703 points, down 15 points from yesterday, down 30.19% from the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 159.41% from the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index has dropped sharply, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has dropped sharply, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium has dropped by 10000 yuan / ton to 905000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has dropped by 4500 yuan / ton to 750000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide has dropped by 12500 yuan / ton to 790000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium has dropped by 30000 yuan / ton to 985000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium has dropped by 30000 yuan / ton to 1065000 yuan / ton, The price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 785000 yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide decreased by 50000 yuan / ton to 13.7 million yuan / ton, the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.27 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium decreased by 35000 yuan / ton to 3.02 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium iron alloy decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.27 million yuan / ton, the price of domestic light rare earth market declined, the traders were generally active, and the metal factories were cautious, Just to be followed up, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, and the price of terbium series is slightly lower. The downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the export of Myanmar is prohibited. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will continue to decline in the later period.

On August 10, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10100-10500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price trend of the on-site merchants was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers increased, and the on-site supply was sufficient. Recently, the fluorite price was slightly higher, but the downstream refrigerant market remained low, and the on-site procurement was not active. From a comprehensive perspective, it is expected that the on-site hydrofluoric acid price trend in the later period will remain temporarily stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 9, the domestic methanol in East China port was about 2490 yuan / ton, down 2.23% from the previous working day. On August 9, the main contract m2209 of methanol futures closed at 2488 yuan / ton, down 59 yuan / ton or 1.54% compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

The international oil price fluctuates widely, and the supply side is abundant. The quotation market for equipment maintenance of production enterprises has not seen obvious effect. After the commencement of the equipment, the external quotation is reduced by about 50 yuan / ton. At the same time, the demand side pays less, and the unit operating rate of downstream enterprises is generally low.

In the short term, the domestic methanol market is still likely to decline.