In August, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a volatile downward trend. According to the price detection of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on August 31 was 7726 yuan / ton, down 2.93% from 7960 at the beginning of the month, up 8.93% year-on-year. In the futures market, at the end of the month, the main short fiber contract closed at 7468 (settlement price 7438), up 0.73% from the beginning of the month.

The main reason for the weak trend of polyester staple fiber in August is still the weak cost and weak demand: the expectation of important progress in the negotiation of Iran nuclear agreement and the market’s concern about economic recession put pressure on the prospect of crude oil demand. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated and weakened, and WTI crude oil fell 9.4% to close at 89 US dollars per barrel (as of 17:35, August 31, Beijing time). The drop in oil price dragged down the price of PTA and ethylene glycol, the raw materials of the upstream of short fiber, and the PTA period and spot month fell by 5.18% and increased by 1.99% respectively. Ethylene glycol futures and spot fell by 7.93% and 8.30% respectively. There are many short fiber maintenance devices in this month, and the inventory pressure is small. However, the new production capacity of xinfengming at the end of this month and the subsequent supply pressure will gradually increase with the completion of maintenance. In this month, the temperature is still high, the industry is still in the off-season, the downstream operation rate is low, and the demand and foreign trade continue to be weak. However, with the decrease of temperature at the end of the month, some cities relax power restrictions, the downstream operation rate has increased, and the demand has improved slightly.

Business analysts believe that the global economic recession worries and the next short-term oil price may still be not optimistic, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is weakened. In September, the textile terminal may gradually turn to the peak season, and the startup rate is expected to pick up, and the demand may improve. With the restart of the unit after overhaul and the landing of new production capacity, the supply pressure of staple fiber may increase in September. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of the industry, it is expected that the polyester staple fiber will be stable and strong in September.

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business agency shows that the domestic market of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in August was mainly weak and stable, of which the mainstream market price was 2141.25 yuan / ton on the 1st and 2095 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly decrease of 2.16%. At present, the production of Henan manufacturers in China is basically normal, the spot stock is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, and the market transaction is relatively flat.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: the monitoring data of business agency shows that the domestic hydrochloric acid Market in August was weak and stable, with the average price falling from about 196.67 yuan / ton on the 1st to about 163.33 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly drop of 16.95%, and a year-on-year drop of 44.95% at the end of the month. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this month, and the downstream demand was general; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of the upstream liquid chlorine is low, and the support for hydrochloric acid is insufficient. The downstream market is slightly decreased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid is weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid in this month.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market price rose first and then fell in August, with a drop of 11.69% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 1st was 6420 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 31st was 5892 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of about 9.63%. In August, the liquefied natural gas market was developed first and then restrained, with a downward trend. At the end of the month, the market demand was poor. In addition, affected by the domestic epidemic prevention and control and the transportation obstruction, the liquid price dropped sharply. The mentality of buying up and not buying down in the downstream is strengthened. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to decline in the short term.

Future forecast: this month, the raw material cost has been steadily reduced, the downstream demand has not improved, and the actual transaction is generally light. It is expected that the future market of polyaluminum chloride will be stable; Due to the influence of the “golden nine” superimposed on the continuous rise of crude oil, we will pay attention to whether there is a possibility of a small rise next month.

Zinc price fell on August 30

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price fell on August 30, and the zinc market fell. On August 30, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 25450 yuan / ton, down 0.5% from the price of 25578 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 11.38% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

When the temperature drops and the power limit in Sichuan expires, the industrial power consumption in Sichuan is restored in succession, the construction of zinc smelters in Sichuan is expected to resume in succession, and the supply of zinc is restored. The upward momentum of zinc market weakened.

Future forecast

After the end of power limitation, the domestic zinc smelting started to resume, and the supply of zinc increased. It is expected that the high price of zinc will fall in the future.

1、 Price summary on August 26:

Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7650 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offers 7600 yuan / ton,

Yangba quoted 7650 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7650 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7650 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis comments:

In terms of crude oil, as the organization of petroleum exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia and its allies (OPEC +) sent a signal to reduce production, the market worried about tight supply, and the oil price was supported to rise.

Today, Sinopec South China increased toluene by 100 yuan / ton.

The crude oil rose, the external toluene support was strong, the domestic toluene supply was tight, and the market favorable atmosphere remained. The rise of gasoline today led to the rise of toluene spot market.

This week, DBP prices fell first and then rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, DBP prices fell first and then rose this week. As of August 26, the DBP price was 8833.33 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of 8833.33 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. On August 25, the DBP commodity index was 69.42, up 0.78 points from yesterday, down 37.18% from the highest point 110.50 in the cycle (October 12, 2021), and up 2.51% from the lowest point 67.72 on August 16, 2022. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2021 to now). The supply and demand of the plasticizer industry chain have improved, and DBP prices fell first and then rose.

This week, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of n-butanol fell this week. On August 26, the price of n-butanol was 6566.67 yuan / ton, down 3.90% from 6833.33 yuan / ton on August 19 at the end of last week, and stable from 6566.67 yuan / ton on August 14 at the beginning of last week. The trading atmosphere of the n-butanol market is weak, the confidence of the industry is general, the downstream operation is low, the supply and demand transmission is relatively slow, and most of them are just needed to purchase. The price range of n-butanol fluctuates and adjusts, and the pressure of n-butanol decline in the future market still exists.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 26, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8350 yuan / ton, up by 3.09% compared with 8100 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the cost of raw materials for DBP increased. In the future, the driving force for DBP to rise increased.

This week, PVC prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of PVC fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 26, the price of PVC was 6490 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the price of 6325 yuan / ton on August 19 last weekend. The PVC market is good and the trading atmosphere is good. At present, the downstream of the PVC spot market is still dominated by rigid demand, the market is active in receiving orders, the market transaction atmosphere is improving, the PVC price is rising, the DBP demand is warming up, and the driving force for DBP in the future is increased.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, as the temperature drops, the power limit loosens, the commencement expectation of plasticizer industry chain rises, the upstream isooctanol stops falling and rising, the price of phthalic anhydride rises, the price range of n-butanol consolidates, and the cost of DBP rises; The downstream PVC market is warming up, and DBP demand is rising. In the future, as the temperature drops and the power limit is loosened, plasticizer enterprises are expected to start to increase, the demand for plasticizer is expected to warm up, the supply and demand of DBP is expected to improve, the price of DBP is expected to stop falling and rise, and the price of DBP is expected to fluctuate and rise.