On the 21st, the domestic polyethylene market was mainly weak and downward, and the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell by 50-200 yuan / ton. The international crude oil price fell, and the support brought by the cost was insufficient. In addition, the terminal demand is weak, the market trading atmosphere is limited, the mentality of merchants is poor, most of them make profits to promote transactions, and the market price follows the decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and there is still room for downside.

The domestic MIBK market fell broadly, and the negotiation reference fell to 10100-10300 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the long-term decline of raw material acetone is obvious. Although there is a correction this week, the trading volume on the floor is still high and low. The real order atmosphere on the floor is poor, and the focus is slightly downward. From the downstream, it has been in a long-term downturn, with insufficient procurement follow-up, while MIBK holders are under great pressure to ship goods, with obvious intention to make profits, and the frequent supply of low-cost goods drives down the market.

The business community expects the MIBK market to be weak in the near future, and pays attention to the trading situation on the floor.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 19th, the average nickel market price was now quoted at 175116.67 yuan / ton, up 5.13% from the previous trading day and 21.86% year-on-year.

Recently, spot nickel rebounded at a low level. The main reason for the rebound is that last week’s data showed that the U.S. economy may not enter recession soon. In addition, Fed officials still cooled their expectations of raising interest rates under the condition of good data. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil led to a general rise in bulk commodities, with Lun nickel closing up 3.60% overnight. In terms of supply and demand, the inventory of LUNI nickel continued to fall last week. Since the end of May, the inventory has declined, with the latest inventory level of 62.532 tons, constantly refreshing the low level for many years. Although domestic production and overseas influx of goods have increased, the cost of ferronickel plant is high and the price is strong. The downstream stainless steel inventory has fallen back to the normal range in recent years, indicating that demand has picked up. In terms of production, affected by early losses, domestic stainless steel production fell month on month.

Forecast: the macro will drive the nickel price to rise, but the fundamentals are general. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

In terms of cost, crude oil rebounded last Friday, and pure benzene in the outer market fell slightly. After the decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand followed up, and the spot price rebounded slightly. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 8600-9150 yuan / ton.

The weakness of pure benzene drives the cautious attitude of aniline Market, and some enterprises cut prices to promote shipment. Today, the price in Shandong is 11500-11730 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 11800-12500 yuan / ton.

Spot price: this week (7.9-7.15)), the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a unilateral downward trend. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 8276 yuan / ton on July 15, down 2.93% from last week and up 14.71% from the same period last year.

Futures market: this week, the main force of short fiber futures showed a downward trend. The main contract of staple fiber pf futures closed at 6754 on Friday, down 12.01% from the closing price of last week. The settlement price is 6808 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 15.30% to close at 5224, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 6.64% to close at 4177.

Influencing factors: 1 Worries that the global economic recession may curb fuel demand and the rebound of the epidemic, coupled with the impact of the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, extended the decline in international crude oil prices this week. This week, USOC fell by more than 8% and closed above $96 a barrel on Friday (as of 17:05 Beijing time). 2. PTA prices fell sharply this week, dragged down by the sharp decline in upstream crude oil and PX, as well as the decline in downstream polyester production and pessimistic demand. 3. Under the continuous loss of ethylene glycol this week, the maintenance plan increased, the commencement fell, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to ease. Although the price of ethylene glycol is lower driven by the cost, the disk surface is stronger than PTA and staple fiber. 4. Dragged down by the sluggish demand and the sharp decline in costs, the main force of short fiber futures continued to fluctuate and fall from the highest level of 9168 on June 10. This week, it broke down again, and short fiber spot also significantly retook its previous increase. However, at present, spot delivery is still tight, and the trend of spot is stronger than that of futures.

Future forecast: under the expectation of global economic recession, the short-term oil price may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. There may be replenishment demand in the downstream after the continuous decline of prices. Polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and stable in the short term. Pay attention to the price of raw materials, downstream demand, epidemic situation, etc.