According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from June 30 to July 7, 2025. On June 30th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6070 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.75%. The toluene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations has fallen. The mainstream refineries in Shandong continued to lower their ex factory prices in the later part of the week. As the price difference with xylene narrowed, some oil blending companies were attracted to enter the market for procurement. The overall shipment situation in Shandong was good, but the market price declined significantly. Trading in the East and South China regions has been relatively quiet this week, with downstream market entry not being active. On exchange quotes have generally decreased, lacking demand support, and spot market prices continue to decline.
Cost wise: The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen this cycle. As of July 4th, the US WTI crude oil futures were closed for the Independence Day holiday, and the September Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price was $68.30 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 7th, East China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5650-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On July 7th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and sales are normal. Reduced by 50 yuan/ton compared to June 30th. As of July 4th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $815-817/ton FOB Korea and $840-842/ton CFR China, a decrease of $26/ton from June 27th.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is volatile, with significant fluctuations and insufficient guidance for the market. The overall supply side is relatively stable, and some parts of East China are slightly tight due to the impact of shipping schedules, which provides some support for the market. However, the overall performance of the demand side is weak, making it difficult for the toluene market to pick up and maintain a weak trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12533 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 12633/ton, with a price increase of 0.80%.
Most domestic activated carbon manufacturers have stable quotes this week, with some rising. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-13000 yuan/ton, and the rise in raw material prices supports the price of coconut shell activated carbon. With the tightening of global environmental policies, the demand for coconut shell activated carbon in water treatment, air purification, food and medicine fields continues to grow.
Internationally, Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells in the world, will encounter multiple natural disasters in 2024. Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations. In the short term, the import price of coconut shell charcoal will continue to operate at a high level. In June 2025, the import price of coconut shell carbonized material specifications, including taxes, has exceeded the 8000 yuan/ton mark.
Prediction: The demand for activated carbon market is growing, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 30th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.67 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 5456.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.12%. The main reason for the weak downstream demand, average shipments from enterprises, and weak raw material support, coupled with a lack of market benefits, is the weak price of ethyl acetate.
Market analysis: This month, the ethyl acetate market has been fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, the price of ethyl acetate showed a weak downward trend, with raw material prices falling and the cost side being bearish, resulting in a downward pressure on ethyl acetate; Afterwards, there was an increase in downstream follow-up, and the company’s shipments were smooth. In addition, the profit of ethyl acetate increased, and the market transaction focus shifted towards a strong upward trend; At the end of the month, the upstream market fell again, leading to a bearish sentiment in the ethyl acetate market. Downstream inquiries weakened, and the price of ethyl acetate continued to decline.
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of June 30th, the price was 2520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.67% compared to the acetic acid price of 2700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid continues to decline, and the cost support for ethyl acetate is weak. Downstream supply consumption is average, and acetic acid companies have limited shipments, resulting in a downward shift in market transaction focus.
Looking at the future market, the ethyl acetate market is currently running weakly, with downstream companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for entering the market. Actual market transactions are weak, and enterprise inventory is accumulating, resulting in significant sales pressure. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will run weakly in the future, with specific attention paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this month, with an average market price of 1275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1272 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 0.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.27%. On June 29th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 84.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.17% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 0.14% from the lowest point of 84.37 points on June 19, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1270 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1300-1400 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1386 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.36% compared to the same period last year, which was 38.56%.
Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with the overall weak performance of upstream raw material soda ash in June. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

In June, the overall ABS market in China experienced two rises and two falls, with some grades experiencing fluctuating spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10625 yuan/ton, and the price level returned to June 1st with a 0% increase or decrease.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In June, the domestic ABS industry saw a narrow increase in load, with the overall load level rising from 61% at the beginning of the month to around 66% at the end of the month. The average weekly output remains unchanged at around 120000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. At the same time, the recent production capacity of new facilities in Daqing Petrochemical has been put into operation, and Haijiang Chemical has resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in an immediate increase in production capacity and a certain suppression of industry supply support. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: As we enter June, the upstream three materials of ABS show mixed trends, and from the end of the month, the market tends to be weak, with limited support for the cost side of ABS. In terms of acrylonitrile, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant was successfully put into operation within the month, increasing supply and suppressing the decline in spot prices. Driven by favorable raw material market conditions, the spot market price of acrylonitrile has slightly rebounded. However, in the short term, there is a lack of growth space in domestic demand, and the cost support lacks sustainability. Fortunately, the inventory position of the enterprise is low and controllable, and the price of acrylonitrile in the future may remain stable.
The domestic butadiene market fluctuated in June, with an overall downward trend. The current macroeconomic performance is poor, with insufficient support. There are loose expectations on the supply side. The overall demand for downstream synthetic rubber market is biased towards rigid demand, and there is no significant positive support on the demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak fundamentals, it is expected that the butadiene market will operate weakly.
Styrene also fluctuated due to the impact of international oil price trends. However, at the end of the month, the production of pure benzene rebounded, and the supply was relatively wide. Coupled with the restart of some styrene plants, the output and capacity utilization rate both increased month on month, indicating loose supply. In addition, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene. Combined with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, it is expected that the styrene market may weaken in the short term.
On the demand side: In the past month, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal has generally remained flat. The current market has entered the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. Affected by the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East in mid to late June, market concerns pushed up international crude oil prices, and ABS was supported by remote raw materials. At the same time, the China US talks released macro positive news, which had a dual impact on the sentiment of industry players in the market, driving some short positions to be replenished and slightly improving the flow rate of goods supply. However, against the backdrop of weak global economic momentum, demand release is limited, domestic inventory levels remain high, supply continues to be loose, and there is ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, the demand side has limited support and improvement for the ABS market.

Future forecast
The domestic ABS market experienced frequent fluctuations in June. The overall price of upstream three materials is weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants has slightly increased, with the demand side at a low season level. Business analysts believe that the ABS market is unlikely to see any improvement in momentum recently due to the release of new production capacity, the decline in crude oil prices, and the impact of the traditional off-season. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the industry has been dragging down spot prices for a long time, and it is expected that the ABS market will follow the upstream trend in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the upstream trend in the far end.