According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province was 4373 yuan / ton on August 3, down 0.43% from the previous trading day and up 29.00% year-on-year. On August 3, the closing price of 2212, the main contract of asphalt futures, was 4084 yuan / ton, up 2.15%.

In terms of spot, international crude oil was weak and volatile, and the spot price of asphalt fell slightly. Sinopec refinery prices remained stable, and some regions continued to be destocked.

The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the asphalt high price transaction is limited, and the domestic asphalt market is mainly sorted out in the short term.

In July, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber stabilized after a sharp decline. According to the price test of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber on the spot market was 7943 yuan / ton on July 31, down 10.01% from the price of 8826 at the beginning of the month, up 7.20% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber contract closed at 7414 at the end of the month, down 7.07% from the beginning of the month.

The main reason for the decline in polyester staple fiber prices in July was the weakening of costs and weak demand: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike raised the risk of economic recession, and the blockade measures that may be brought about by the repeated global epidemic suppressed demand. In July, the international crude oil price volatility weakened, and WTI crude oil fell 7.26% to close at US $98.30 per barrel. The fall in oil prices dragged down the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, the upstream raw materials of staple fiber, and the PTA period and spot month fell by 9.39% and 6.78% respectively. Ethylene glycol futures and spot fell by 3.05% and 2.67% respectively in the month. With the continuous high temperature, the off-season of the industry continues, the downstream operating rate declines, and the demand and foreign trade weaken, it is expected that the downstream demand will still be difficult to improve in the short term. However, in late this month, some textile enterprises in textile terminals had the atmosphere of bottom reading and replenishment after the continuous decline of staple fiber prices, and most of them returned to wait-and-see by the end of the month.

Business analysts believe that under the global economic recession and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, the short-term oil price may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. Textile terminals are still in the off-season, with low startup rate and weak demand. However, the spot supply of staple fiber is still tight, and some devices still have maintenance plans. The future trend of polyester staple fiber may still be dominated by cost. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock and stabilize trend in August. Pay attention to the changes in raw material prices, the epidemic, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the adjustment of U.S. tariff policies.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price of p-xylene has declined. The domestic price of p-xylene is 9000 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the domestic supply of p-xylene is general, and the overseas units are operating normally, so the domestic price of p-xylene has fallen. Recently, the international oil price has risen, but the PX external price has fallen slightly. On the 29th, the closing prices in Asia were $1102-1104 / ton FOB South Korea and $1120-1122 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price is still supported, In addition, the PX settlement price of Sinopec fell sharply in July, the downstream PTA and textile industry market was weak, and the market price trend of paraxylene fell.

Aluminum price bottomed out and rebounded

According to the data of business agency, on July 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18633.33 yuan / ton, up 1.45% daily, down 2.27% from the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (7.1), and down 4.49% from the average market price of 19090 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

At the peak in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak fell by 23.13%. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 0.32% recently. At present, the price basically returns to the valley value that plummeted after last year’s peak.

Fundamentals overview

In July, the aluminum price generally operated in the “V” word. In the early stage, the social inventory went to the warehouse periodically, but the price moved down. This week, the social inventory accumulated slightly, but the price stabilized and rose.

At present, on the supply and demand side, the output continues to rise, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. Recent non-ferrous sector capital factors dominate the upward band. The expected price rise, on the one hand, comes from the measures to stabilize real estate & the favorable policy of domestic automobile consumption and the expected improvement of terminal demand. On the other hand, in the early stage, the price fell to the 17000 line, touching part of the cost line, and the game intensified. There was expectation and demand for a rebound at the bottom of the market.

Downstream products are also in the state of destocking, and consumer demand is rising. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots will be strong in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price in July was mainly wide-ranging. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 182833.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 183550 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 0.39% and a year-on-year increase of 24.93%.

Macro aspect: according to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year increase of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) from March to May was more than 8% for three consecutive months. In June, CPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 41 years. On July 21, the European Central Bank announced that it would raise the three key interest rates by 50 basis points, which was higher than the 25 basis points previously expected by the market and exceeded the European Central Bank’s forward-looking guidance in June. On the 27th, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point increase in interest rates, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to between 2.25% and 2.5%. This is the fourth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the second consecutive 75 basis points hike.

Supply side: Philippine nickel ore exports increased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Indonesian Ferronickel, high matte and Hydrometallurgical intermediate MHP are gradually supplied in large quantities, and the domestic ferronickel market is in surplus. In June, China’s electrolytic nickel (pure nickel) output was 16150 tons, an increase of 9.9% month on month, and will continue to increase in July; In June, nickel sulfate produced 28800 tons of metal, an increase of 12.6% month on month.

In terms of demand: the crude steel output of domestic stainless steel plants decreased significantly month on month in June, and most of the steel plants lost money. Maintenance and production reduction were arranged intensively in June and July. The crude steel output of 33 domestic stainless steel plants was 2.6219 million tons, a month on month decrease of 8.56%. In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a record high, with an average year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. The output of China’s ternary precursor was about 66900 tons, an increase of 22.2% month on month. It is expected that the output of power batteries in July will increase by 10%-20% month on month, doubling year-on-year, and the demand for new energy nickel will continue to improve.

To sum up: the supply of nickel ore has increased, and the supply of nickel is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the downstream stainless steel is weak, and the demand for new energy nickel is good. In August, the fundamentals are similar, and the nickel price is expected to continue the trend of July, with a low-level wide range shock trend.