According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 23, the average price of formic acid enterprises was 3766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (August 18), down 3.42% compared with that of July 23, and down 41.15% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (August 18-august 23), the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market price is stable. Recently, the market of caustic soda and liquid ammonia in the upstream has been consolidated, the price of sulfuric acid has been weak and stable, the market of methanol as the main raw material has been shaken and sorted out, the cost side has limited impact on the formic acid market, the downstream is purchased on demand, the market transaction is orderly, and the negotiation focus of industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable.

In terms of cost: for the upstream caustic soda, on August 23, the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was adjusted and operated. The mainstream market price was about 1020-1100 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated. The downstream was mainly wait-and-see attitude, and it was expected that the adjustment trend would be maintained in the later period; Upstream liquid ammonia: on the 24th, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to be stable. The dealers reported that there might be a small margin of profit, and the market range was mainly adjusted in a narrow range; Upstream sulfuric acid: on August 23, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable; For upstream methanol, on August 23, the reference price of methanol was 2475.00, a decrease of 3.13% compared with August 1 (2555.00).

According to the formic acid analysts of the business association, the current impact of the cost side is general, the overall market trading atmosphere is mild, and the holders mainly wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will be stable, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

On August 23, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3052.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.75% over the previous working day. According to the market news, the supply of goods in some factories was reduced due to the shutdown and maintenance of acetic acid units or low load operation. The mentality of the holders was changed, and the price was slightly increased. The downstream demand was general, and the demand was mainly continued. The supply and demand game continued. The market of acetic acid in the future was limited. It is expected that the market of acetic acid will be consolidated, The price range fluctuates mainly, and the specific attention is paid to the market transaction.

1、 Price summary on August 19:

Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7550 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offers 7500 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 7350 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7450 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and chemical offers 7500 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis comments:

In terms of crude oil, the oil price rose slightly last Friday, but it recorded a weekly decline. At present, the market is still dragged by the strength of the US dollar and worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the future economic recession.

Today, Sinopec South China increased toluene by 150 yuan / ton.

Crude oil rose slightly, toluene in the outer wall rose, and the cost was boosted; However, terminal gasoline is weak, and operators are cautious.

This week (August 15-19), the price of domestic liquid ammonia fell at the beginning of the week. From the middle of the week to the end of the week, the market was mainly stable. The prices of Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei declined compared with the previous weekend, but the range was not large, mostly in the range of 100-200 yuan. The market supply is tight, but the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is still sluggish. The psychology of buying up but not buying down leads to unsatisfactory transaction. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 19, the weekly drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.23%, and the mainstream quotation range at the weekend was 3400-3700 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China was slightly lower than that in the previous week, especially in the southwest and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the electricity restriction in Anhui also affected part of the supply, and the market supply decreased due to the maintenance of manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei. Under the condition of very weak demand, the continuous contraction of supply is the main reason for the price bottoming and stabilizing.

Cost side

Upstream coal prices fluctuated, rising by 1.02% this week, but prices remained high. The profit of downstream liquid ammonia is constantly squeezed. However, the coal price regulated by the state is still within a reasonable range. The downstream cost pressure is not great. At present, the profit of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers is still within a reasonable range. Natural gas prices also fell this week, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of business agency, the decline of liquefied natural gas this week was 2.98%.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is stable and there is no increase. The price of urea rose slightly, only 0.17%. Other products such as ammonium nitrate (- 4.11%) and ammonium chloride (- 5.37%) showed weak performance, with a significant decline. From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand is tepid and industrial demand is mainly. In particular, affected by the power limitation in Sichuan, the operating rate of manufacturers has dropped significantly, and urea plants have been shut down one after another, and the demand has dropped to the freezing point. Superimposed on the high price rise of coal in the upstream, liquid ammonia can be said to be under attack.

From the above figure, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since the decline of urea is more obvious than that of liquid ammonia, the price difference between them is significantly narrowed.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, it can be seen that the profit of the liquid ammonia industry chain continues to narrow, and the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head has been falling, but the coal price is high. Although the price is still controlled by the policy, the middle and lower reaches still show general cost pressure. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, the decline of compound fertilizer in the middle and lower reaches is obvious, and the profit of the enterprise meets the test. The profit of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer is significantly lower than that in the previous period.

Future forecast

The Business Association believes that at present, the supply and demand of the domestic liquid ammonia Market are still uncertain in the near future, especially due to the power limitation in Southwest China. In the short term, it may face the trend of tight supply. In the later period, it is necessary to continue to observe the operation of the manufacturers. The supply side is mainly good in the short term, but the demand side is not optimistic. On the one hand, the agricultural demand continues to be weak. In addition, the industrial demand also remains strong, and the impact of the epidemic is superimposed. It is expected that the short-term rigidity of liquid ammonia is strong, but the possibility of a large rebound is low.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 18, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5100 yuan / ton, up or down by – 4.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic potash market momentum continued to decline. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises continued to decline, and the overall operating rate has dropped to nearly 20%. The downstream consumption is not good, and the potassium sulfate enterprise has a low load but a high inventory position, which makes it difficult for the supply side to support the spot. The previous export policy continued, and export sales were affected to a certain extent, which also increased the supply pressure on the floor. The upstream potassium chloride continued to decline this week. Border trade and port cargo volume continued to be high, imported and domestic goods filled domestic inventory at the same time, and downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate purchased generally. The competition in the field was strengthened, and the price had been reduced to the cost price. Potassium chloride has poor support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. This week, the market price of potassium sulfate fell, the profit situation of merchants was poor, the prices of many regions were inverted, and the news of new orders was rare.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of the Business Association believes that the domestic potassium sulfate Market has fallen this week, and the potassium chloride market has fallen. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened. The supply side is low but the follow-up situation on the demand side is poor. In addition, there are more goods in the market. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.