1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, aniline fell broadly this month and rebounded narrowly near the end of the month. On November 1, the aniline market price was 14700 yuan/ton; On November 28, the price was 10438 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell 29% from the beginning of the month and 5.97% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As for raw materials, the pure benzene market was hit by many negative factors this month, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7384 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 6759 yuan/ton, down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid rose this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2367 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2417 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 2.11% higher than the beginning of the month and 7.64% lower than the same period last year.

In October, due to the centralized maintenance of aniline devices, the capacity loss was obvious, the market supply was tight, and the price continued to rise. In November, aniline reversed its trend and fell all the way. Since the beginning of this month, the early maintenance devices have returned, and the on-site spot supply has increased significantly; However, due to the increased resistance to high priced aniline in the downstream, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has decreased. In the context of increased supply and reduced demand, aniline factory inventory began to accumulate and prices fell broadly under pressure. Near the end of the month, the price of aniline fell to a low level, which led to the improvement of downstream purchasing sentiment. In addition, due to the limited transportation of northern factories, aniline rebounded slightly.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw materials, pure benzene: the fundamentals are hard to change in the short term. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate stocks, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene will continue its weak trend in the short term, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand can be improved.

Pure benzene is still likely to weaken in the short term, and aniline cost support is insufficient. In December, the maintenance of aniline device was less and the supply side was sufficient. The downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the auxiliary industry has entered the off-season, with poor demand performance. On the whole, the aniline market continued to be weak in December, with a weak rebound. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell sharply this month, and the average price of the domestic neopentyl glycol mainstream market fell from 10066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 10.93%. On November 29, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 43.21, up 0.16 points from yesterday, down 58.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 0.37% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell sharply this month

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this month. The price of isobutyraldehyde dropped from 6600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.56%. The factory price of formaldehyde in China fell slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde fell from 1383.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1343.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.89%. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the price support for neopentyl glycol was insufficient due to the influence of supply and demand.

3、 Future market forecast

The overall trend of neopentyl glycol market in the first half of December was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde market declined slightly, and cost support weakened. The market price of downstream coatings is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Price trend

At the beginning of December, the domestic PA66 market declined. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA66 was 23000 yuan/ton on December 5, with a weekly rise and fall of – 3.16%.

Cause analysis

Recently, the price of PA66 has fallen, and the center of gravity of the offer has dropped significantly. In terms of upstream, domestic hexamethylene diamine declined due to the shock of crude oil, and pure benzene continued to be weak. Overlapping the market de stocking operation, the demand side was weak, the price fell, and the support for PA66 declined. In terms of industry operation rate, the recent load of PA66 industry is stable, with the operation level between 60% – 70%, and the market spot supply is stable and abundant. The social inventory rose. In terms of demand, last week, the terminal enterprises tended to maintain production just because of their demand for goods. The enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation was not good, and they had strong resistance to high price goods. The shipping speed of the merchants slowed down, and the goods in the yard were not smooth.

Future market forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 fell. The raw material side market fell, and PA66 cost side support weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises stabilized, the enterprises reduced their prices and shipped goods, and the overall inventory position increased. The demand side just needs to follow up the goods slowly, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to operate in a weak way in the short term.

The domestic BDO market is narrow and organized. Most traders hold a steady wait-and-see attitude. The atmosphere of real order negotiation is light. The supply and demand negotiation is a game. The market focus is stuck. Although some maintenance devices such as Shaanxi Shanhua and Chongqing Jianfeng have been restarted, and the market supply has increased, the demand for BDO of Henan Hemei after the shutdown of the device has been met. The supply and demand parties negotiate and play games, and the market is difficult to rise and fall.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 25 to December 2, the average weekly price of domestic BDO manufacturers remained at 9880 yuan/ton, and at 9716 yuan/ton at the weekend. During the cycle, the price fell 1.66%, 33.11% month on month, and 68.91% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream of spot bulk water in South China negotiated 9100-9400 yuan/ton, and the barrel negotiated 10500-11500 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance). The spot bulk water in East China is mainly negotiated at 9000-9300 yuan/ton, and the barrel bulk water is negotiated at 10500-11500 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw material calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price rose slightly, with the price at the beginning of the week at 3700 yuan/ton, and at the weekend at 3798 yuan/ton, up 2.65%.

In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports was weak and lower, which was 2811 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2670 yuan/ton as of 10:00 a.m. on December 2, with a 5.04% drop in the price during the cycle. At present, the domestic methanol market is mainly organized.

In terms of downstream products, the overall performance of downstream demand is general, especially the weak demand for spandex at the main terminal leads to the accumulation of inventory, and the market of PTMEG spandex industry chain declines; In some downstream industries, replenishment ended when the market was low, and the current contract is mainly maintained.

The BDO market started at a high level, with abundant supply; Correspondingly, the downstream PBT industry started to increase, and the demand increased. The market presented a situation of both supply and demand. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on November 30 was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.40% from the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 29.58% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in November slightly increased by 0.5%, including 2011.25 yuan/ton on the 1st, 2017.5 yuan/ton on the 12th, and 2021.25 yuan/ton from the 18th to the end of the month. The demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products has decreased sharply this month due to the rapid cooling of the weather, the central heating in the middle and north of China, and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The market of raw material hydrochloric acid is on the rise. In the short term, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory and few orders. The recent changes in raw material prices have little impact. In the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is mainly stable, supplemented by small fluctuations.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell first and then rose in November. On the first day, the market reported 186.67 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, 198.00 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 6.07%. The price at the end of the month fell 38.89% compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of manufacturers, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support; Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may increase slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic LNG on November 1 was 5450 yuan/ton, and the average market price on November 30 was 4514 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 17.17%, of which the largest drop this month was – 7.16% in the week of November 21. This month, the supply of domestic LNG market exceeded the demand, and the high liquid price began to cover the drop. In some areas, due to snow weather and epidemic control, transportation is blocked. Enterprises cut prices one after another to digest inventory. Market demand is weak and trading is flat. However, at the end of the month, domestic cold air hit, and demand increased slightly. Most liquid plants were still paying high prices. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to rise in the short term.

Future forecast: The recent public health events in many places across the country have had a strong impact, sealed and controlled management, the economy is expected to decline, the demand is not as good as in previous years, and the water treatment market in 2022 is not as good as the same period last year. The light snow has passed, the weather is cold, the downstream demand for commencement continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the cost of raw hydrochloric acid and energy LNG has risen. However, the recent orders are limited, the inventory is sufficient, and the manufacturer’s purchasing enthusiasm is not high. In the future, when the manufacturer’s stock of raw materials is exhausted, if the raw material market continues to rise, the manufacturer’s procurement and cost will rise, the polyaluminum chloride market will rise with it, but in the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily, moderately and slightly.