Data monitoring shows that the polyaluminum chloride commodity index stood at 101.49 on March 31, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 20.36% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China continued to fluctuate slightly in March, with the main market price of 1925 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 1877 yuan/ton on the 31st day, a decrease of 2.47%. This month, some water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas quickly resumed production due to short-term phased environmental protection shutdowns, which did not affect the supply and demand situation. There was abundant spot inventory, downstream procurement demand continued to be weak, market transactions were not active, and the market for polyaluminum chloride had been weak for several consecutive months.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data from the Business News Agency, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price in March was stable and fluctuated, with the market reporting 166 yuan/ton on the first day and 198 yuan/ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 19.28%. From the perspective of the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose sharply this month, with fewer manufacturers in inventory. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen significantly, with increased cost support and sufficient momentum for the rise of hydrochloric acid; The market situation in the downstream market declined slightly, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers in purchasing hydrochloric acid was weak. It is expected that the hydrochloric acid market in the first ten days of mid April may suffer a slight fluctuation and decline.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to data from Business News Agency, domestic LNG prices fell sharply in March. As of March 31, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4344 yuan/ton, down 28.03% from the daily average price of 4214 yuan/ton. Cost support weakened due to lower feed gas prices. Market supply is sufficient and terminal demand is weak. After the end of the heating season in the north, there was a significant oversupply situation in the market, and the sea gas sector also followed the downward trend. Currently, the domestic liquid price has fallen to a low level, and it is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: This month, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid has risen, the cost of nitrogen and fuel has significantly decreased, the domestic market has a high supply and low demand, the market demand continues to be weak, and the spot inventory is sufficient. Industry insiders generally reflect that the situation this year is difficult, and it is expected that the future market for polyaluminum chloride will be dominated by a slight weakness.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, the sulfur price trend in East China rose first and then fell in March, resulting in a weak market situation. As of March 30, the average ex-factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% during the month compared to 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

During the month, the sulfur market in East China was sorted out and operated, with the price trend mainly rising in the first ten days. The terminal market had a demand for fertilizer in spring, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good. Enterprise shipments were smooth, and the sulfur market operated at a high price, rising from 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1223.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.58%; In the middle and late stages of the market, the price fell from 1223.33 yuan/ton to 1083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.44%. The main reason was that the performance of the terminal market was flat, downstream demand weakened, refineries lowered their prices to stimulate shipments, and the impact of buying up and not buying down mentality led to a weak decline in sulfur prices.

The market price of downstream sulfuric acid rose first and then fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the market price of sulfuric acid was 253.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 250.00 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1.31% during the month. Before March 17, the trading atmosphere in the sulfuric acid market was good, with positive downstream delivery, smooth enterprise shipments, and favorable price increases; From March 18th to the end of the month, downstream demand weakened, enterprise shipments were poor, coupled with enterprise inventory pressure, and the price of sulfuric acid enterprises decreased.

The market of monoammonium phosphate in March was weak and sorted out, with weak market demand for monoammonium phosphate. Downstream purchasing was cautious, with a small amount of replenishment being the main factor. Due to insufficient intramarket trading, the focus of monoammonium phosphate transaction shifted downward. As of March 30, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3250 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from the average price of 3330 yuan/ton on March 1.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business News believe that the sulfur enterprise’s units are operating normally, the market supply is stable, and the end of spring fertilizer use in the terminal market is approaching. Downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of positive results on the market. In the event of oversupply, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and reorganized, with price fluctuations in the range. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 29, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 8500 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 9566 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 1066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.15%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, since March (3.1-3.29), the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a weak and continuous decline. In early March, supported by high raw material prices, the propylene glycol market experienced a brief upward movement. However, affected by the continued weakness of the downstream demand side, from mid to late March, the focus of the domestic propylene glycol market continued to move downward, with limited new orders and slow transmission of propylene glycol supply and demand. Propylene glycol factories and suppliers have successively lowered the price of propylene glycol, reaching a maximum decline of around 1000 yuan/ton in domestic propylene glycol. As of March 29, the market price of propylene glycol in China is around 8300-8900 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

Currently, new orders on the propylene glycol floor are generally traded, with a flat trading atmosphere and strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. The propylene glycol data analyst from the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly weak and subject to narrow range adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 28, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8300 yuan/ton. Compared to March 1, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.32%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, since March (3.1-3.28), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak and declining trend. In early March, supported by the high cost of raw materials, the butanone market experienced a brief upward movement. As of March 10, butanone rose slightly by 1.14% in early March. However, downstream demand for butanone has consistently underperformed, with limited new orders and a weak market atmosphere. Therefore, due to the continued drag of insufficient demand side, the butanone market fell into a continuous downward trend in the middle and late March, and the market gravity continued to decline. As of March 28, the domestic butanone market price was referenced around 7800-8600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 300-500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of future market of butanone

At present, the overall transaction of butanone on the market is still cautious, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Buying and purchasing are mainly based on strict stock preparation. The butanone data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell sharply this week. On March 27, the average price in the Shandong market was 2151.50 yuan/ton, down 14.84% from the price of 2526.50 yuan/ton on March 20.

The petroleum coke commodity index on March 27 was 167.34, down 21.39 points from yesterday, down 59.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 150.17% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell sharply, and local refineries actively scheduled inventory, resulting in poor delivery and investment. Downstream enterprises were cautious in receiving goods. In addition to high domestic port inventory, the current petroleum coke market is still in a situation of oversupply.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, the pressure of the banking crisis eased, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

The price of calcined coke fell sharply this week; This week, metal silicon continued to explore under pressure, and the decline at the end of the week slowed down. As of March 27, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 16890 yuan/ton, down 1.97% on a weekly basis. The spot market transaction remained light, with some businesses selling at low prices, but it was difficult to improve the weak situation; Downstream electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuated and rose, as of March 27, the price was 18416.67 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and lack enthusiasm for entering the market.

According to the petroleum coke analysts from Business News, the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports is currently at a high level for a long time, with sufficient market supply, serious shortage of procurement at the downstream demand end, and excessive market supply. In the near future, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will continue; Local refining enterprises are facing difficulties in shipping, actively reducing prices to remove inventory, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and lack enthusiasm for entering the market. It is expected that petroleum coke refining in the near future may continue to decline.