In June, the overall ABS market in China experienced two rises and two falls, with some grades experiencing fluctuating spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10625 yuan/ton, and the price level returned to June 1st with a 0% increase or decrease.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: In June, the domestic ABS industry saw a narrow increase in load, with the overall load level rising from 61% at the beginning of the month to around 66% at the end of the month. The average weekly output remains unchanged at around 120000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises remains stable at over 200000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. At the same time, the recent production capacity of new facilities in Daqing Petrochemical has been put into operation, and Haijiang Chemical has resumed operation after maintenance, resulting in an immediate increase in production capacity and a certain suppression of industry supply support. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and current inventory is relatively controllable. The supply side provides average support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: As we enter June, the upstream three materials of ABS show mixed trends, and from the end of the month, the market tends to be weak, with limited support for the cost side of ABS. In terms of acrylonitrile, the Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant was successfully put into operation within the month, increasing supply and suppressing the decline in spot prices. Driven by favorable raw material market conditions, the spot market price of acrylonitrile has slightly rebounded. However, in the short term, there is a lack of growth space in domestic demand, and the cost support lacks sustainability. Fortunately, the inventory position of the enterprise is low and controllable, and the price of acrylonitrile in the future may remain stable.
The domestic butadiene market fluctuated in June, with an overall downward trend. The current macroeconomic performance is poor, with insufficient support. There are loose expectations on the supply side. The overall demand for downstream synthetic rubber market is biased towards rigid demand, and there is no significant positive support on the demand side. Overall, under the influence of weak fundamentals, it is expected that the butadiene market will operate weakly.
Styrene also fluctuated due to the impact of international oil price trends. However, at the end of the month, the production of pure benzene rebounded, and the supply was relatively wide. Coupled with the restart of some styrene plants, the output and capacity utilization rate both increased month on month, indicating loose supply. In addition, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S is weak, with low profit contraction and high finished product inventory, which has dragged down the demand for styrene. Combined with the easing of the situation in the Middle East, it is expected that the styrene market may weaken in the short term.
On the demand side: In the past month, the load of downstream ABS factories in the ABS terminal has generally remained flat. The current market has entered the traditional off-season, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. Affected by the worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East in mid to late June, market concerns pushed up international crude oil prices, and ABS was supported by remote raw materials. At the same time, the China US talks released macro positive news, which had a dual impact on the sentiment of industry players in the market, driving some short positions to be replenished and slightly improving the flow rate of goods supply. However, against the backdrop of weak global economic momentum, demand release is limited, domestic inventory levels remain high, supply continues to be loose, and there is ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, the demand side has limited support and improvement for the ABS market.

Future forecast
The domestic ABS market experienced frequent fluctuations in June. The overall price of upstream three materials is weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants has slightly increased, with the demand side at a low season level. Business analysts believe that the ABS market is unlikely to see any improvement in momentum recently due to the release of new production capacity, the decline in crude oil prices, and the impact of the traditional off-season. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the industry has been dragging down spot prices for a long time, and it is expected that the ABS market will follow the upstream trend in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the upstream trend in the far end.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 27th, the price of lead 1 # was 17058 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60% compared to the lead price of 16790 yuan/ton on June 23rd.
This week’s market analysis
This week, some refineries have started maintenance of primary lead, resulting in reduced supply and affecting lead prices.
supply end
The supply of waste batteries is still in a tight situation, with prices maintaining a strong trend. Despite the continuous loss of recycled lead, the phenomenon of production reduction by enterprises is still continuing; Starting from this week, some refineries have entered a maintenance period for primary lead. On the demand side, based on the operating rate data of lead-acid batteries last week, there is still a slight upward trend. However, the overall market terminal consumption situation has not shown substantial improvement, and some enterprises are looking forward to the market recovery in July.
demand side
The lead-acid battery market for electric bicycles has entered the traditional sales peak season, and the demand for lead has increased, resulting in a slight increase in the operating rate of related enterprises. Other demand sides are still in a sluggish state.
Inventory end
From the inventory situation, LME’s lead inventory is still at a historical high level, while the pressure on domestic social inventory to remain stable in the near future is relatively small.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, the fundamentals of the lead market have shown some signs of improvement recently, but the current market is still in a weak supply-demand situation. Therefore, it is recommended to approach the increase in lead prices with caution.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market rose at the end of June, with most brand products experiencing price increases. As of June 25th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7493.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of+1.35% compared to the price level at the beginning of June.
price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Since early June, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe has remained highly tense. The market is increasingly concerned about the risk of crude oil supply. At the same time, the seasonal increase in fuel demand has boosted the market synchronously. However, the expected ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran recently reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices quickly fell after rising. Due to the transmission of the previous rise in crude oil prices, propane and propylene in China have now risen to high levels, and the cost support for PDH and propylene production enterprises is still strong. Overall, the recent prices of PP raw materials have provided strong support for costs, and it is recommended to closely monitor international oil prices in the future.
Supply side:
At the end of June, the load of domestic PP enterprises fluctuated narrowly, and the market supply remained abundant. Overall, the current industry’s overall load level has been slightly adjusted to around 78.6% compared to nearly 80% in the middle of the year. The weekly average total production has increased to over 780000 tons, and domestic inventory has accumulated to over 820000 tons. The Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Fourth Line was put into operation on June 19th within the interval. At the same time, both Zhenhai Line and Zhejiang Petrochemical have reduced their production capacity and basically flattened their production capacity. However, in addition to the 500000 tons/year new production capacity of Zhenhai Fourth Line that has already been put into operation, and the presence of Yulong Petrochemical and other enterprises in the fourth quarter, a total of 900000 tons of new production capacity has been put into operation, severely limiting the future supply pattern. Overall, there is still some suppression on the spot price of PP by the supply side.
In terms of demand:
At the end of June, the demand side of PP continued to be weak, and on-site trading gradually entered the traditional off-season. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. There is also a certain shrinkage in materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields. On site new orders tend to focus on scattered small orders and contract deliveries, resulting in a return to flat supply liquidity and a further slowdown in PP demand release speed. The news of the second round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States in the early stage has strengthened the mentality of some industry players and stimulated the market to release some of the demand for replenishment. However, in the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP does not provide sufficient support for spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of June, the domestic PP market prices rose. Fundamentally speaking, there are significant fluctuations in the upstream of the far end, and propylene propane is still at a high level, indicating strong overall support for PP. Industry inventory has rebounded and supply remains abundant. Consumption is at a low season level. The current cost side benefits are intertwined with the negative effects of supply and demand contradictions, and the market speculation atmosphere has fallen. It is expected that the PP market will continue to digest the previous gains in the short term and enter a consolidation market. It is recommended to closely monitor the cost situation.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 24th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4170 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices have been the main trend, with a strong price trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has increased by 3.22%, or 100 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market is observing and consolidating.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of cost, the upstream methanol market price is relatively firm, and the port trend is stronger than that of the mainland. In the short term, the port market will maintain a high level of operation, while downstream demand procurement will be the main focus. Currently, the mainland market maintains a high operating rate, and raw material procurement is cautious. Traders have a low price reluctance to sell. In terms of port: the arrival at the port is not as expected, the port market is active, and cargo rights are relatively concentrated. It is expected that prices will continue to rise in the short term.
In terms of demand: Recently, the DMF market demand has been poor, and the overall market is weak with a wait-and-see attitude. This week, the operating rate of enterprises has remained stable, and there has been no news of new device maintenance. Currently, the overall inventory is running at a high level, and the supply of spot goods exceeds the demand. The pressure on the demand side is high, and it is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious, and prices are fluctuating weakly. In terms of market mentality, the supply and demand are deadlocked. Business operators have a general mentality in the future and.
On the supply side: This week, the DMF market is observing and consolidating. On the supply side, there will be equipment maintenance at the end of the month. At that time, the factory inventory was running at a high level, and the supply side is sufficient. Currently, the downstream is still in the off-season, and on-demand procurement is the main focus, with slow shipments and difficulty in increasing actual orders. It is expected that the overall market supply and demand will be balanced in the short term, and there will be no supply pressure.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the downstream DMF market is currently beyond the off-season level, with on-demand procurement as the main focus, smooth market shipments, and remaining inventory pressure. It is expected that the DMF market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8037 yuan/ton on June 16th and 8117 yuan/ton on June 20th, an increase of 1.00%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9516 yuan/ton on June 16th and 9933 yuan/ton on June 20th, an increase of 4.38%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 7438 yuan/ton on June 16th and 7556 yuan/ton on June 20th, an increase of 1.59%.
Recently, the trend of polyethylene market continues to be strong, with a significant increase in high-pressure prices. Affected by the intensified international geopolitical situation, crude oil prices have strengthened, providing strong support for the polyethylene market on the cost side. In addition, the maintenance of high-voltage product equipment is relatively concentrated, and the supply side is tight, which has led to a significant increase in the price of high-voltage products. Production enterprises and traders have raised their quotations one after another. The demand for agricultural film is in the off-season, with few orders from enterprises, poor demand, and limited transactions; The operating rate of downstream pipe products has declined compared to the previous period. The overall downstream demand for polyethylene is relatively weak, limiting the room for price increases.
Affected by the strong cost of crude oil, but the demand for polyethylene is in the off-season, and the expected upward space is limited.