According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 19th, the average price of acetic acid was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 3010 yuan/ton on January 13th, with a month on month increase of 2.03%.

This week, the acetic acid market remained stable with small fluctuations, and enterprise quotations fluctuated. On the supply side, the utilization rate of domestic production capacity is relatively high, and factories are actively shipping. In some regions, downstream goods are well received, and enterprise shipments are relatively smooth. However, in the North China and Shandong regions, enterprise shipments are poor, and downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm is not high. The market price of acetic acid has shifted downward, with the main focus on CEOs in the East and South China regions, and manufacturer quotations remain stable.

As of January 19th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On January 13th/ On January 19th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2895 yuan/ton/ -15

Shandong region/ 2910 yuan/ton/ 2890 yuan/ton/ -20

Jiangsu region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 0

Zhejiang region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 0

The upstream methanol market has fallen from a high level. From January 13th to 19th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2739 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.58%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic methanol market strengthened, but after reaching a high level, the market was generally buying gas. Later, with the increase in shipping costs, production companies offered discounts and shipped, causing the domestic methanol market price to fall.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has seen a narrow upward adjustment. On January 19th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5067.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.30% compared to the price of 5052.50 yuan/ton on January 13th. The upstream acetic acid market showed mixed ups and downs, with the cost of acetic anhydride generally average. Downstream demand was the main factor, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The supply and demand in the market were relatively balanced, and the price of acetic anhydride was adjusted upwards.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the current utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream pre holiday stocking enthusiasm is not high, the sales pressure on the supply side still exists, and the on-site trading is average. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market may be weak, and attention should be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8471 yuan/ton to 8442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.50%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.53%. Exploring the weakness of the domestic BDO market. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most downstream factories have reduced their workload or stopped for vacation, resulting in a decrease in the demand side’s digestion of raw materials. However, the supply of BDO is still acceptable, but the pressure of supply and demand has increased. Holding manufacturers have a shipping mentality, and the focus of negotiations is fluctuating downward.

On the supply side, although the Lanshan Tunhe Phase III agent has been replaced, Wanhua and Kaixiang have maintained stable operation after early maintenance and restart of parking devices, resulting in an increase in BDO supply and average support on the supply side. The supply side is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has maintained stable operation. With the approaching Spring Festival and the increasing expectations of rainy and snowy weather in northern regions, downstream stocking enthusiasm has significantly increased. Recently, there has been a noticeable destocking in Wuhai and Ningxia regions. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating at a high level. As of 3:00 pm on January 17th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2695 yuan/ton. The market for raw material calcium carbide remains stable and stable, while methanol prices tend to strengthen and consolidate. The cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal spandex production has declined and the market is running weakly, resulting in multiple downstream PTMEG units experiencing load reduction, parking or maintenance expectations, and a decrease in industry load. Other downstream industries such as PBAT, TPU, and PU pulp have also experienced a significant decline in industry load due to poor terminal follow-up. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the operation of the equipment is relatively stable, and the supply side support is average; However, the downstream load of the terminal has declined, which has led to the digestion of inventory of raw materials, and the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, resulting in increased supply and demand pressure. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

This week (1.11-1.17), the nickel market rebounded. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on January 17th, spot nickel was reported at 129075 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.48%.

Macroscopically, China has released its 2024 economic report card, indicating that the country’s economy is operating steadily with progress. The annual gross domestic product was 134908.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The total import and export volume of goods in 2024 was 43846.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The market expects global economic growth and strong demand for industrial metals, boosting the upward trend of the market.

On the supply side: Indonesia has set the nickel mining quota for 2025 at around 200 million tons, which is 400 million tons less than in 2024. Lunding Mining stated that nickel production will gradually decrease over the next three years. At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, destocking is weak, and the electrolytic nickel market remains loose. On January 17th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27558 tons, an increase of 100 tons during the week; On January 16th, LME nickel inventory was 167994 tons, an increase of 3684 tons during the week.

In terms of demand, factors such as the approaching Spring Festival and holiday arrangements have weakened the demand in the spot market. The demand for nickel in the fields of essential needs replenishment, alloys, batteries, stainless steel, etc. is expected to maintain growth, but overall activity is still limited.

Market forecast: There is still resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices under inventory pressure, but with production control in the mining sector and expectations of global economic recovery, it is expected that nickel prices may experience strong range fluctuations.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on January 16th: 14900 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On January 16th, the trading volume of titanium dioxide market was light. Recently, the titanium concentrate market has remained stable, with tight supply of goods, and the sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized. At present, the cost pressure on titanium dioxide enterprises remains, and manufacturers’ quotations are mostly firm. The demand for upstream and downstream factories is mainly for urgent procurement, and the willingness to stock up before the holiday is average. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Prediction: In the short term, the titanium dioxide market will continue to operate in a temporarily stable consolidation mode.

In 2024, against the backdrop of prominent supply and demand pressures and weak costs, PVC will perform weakly. The market is generally showing a volatile downward trend. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the total decline last year was 12.13%.

The performance in the first quarter was sluggish, and the overall market showed a narrow range of fluctuations. There were two major market fluctuations during the year: in April and May, due to spring maintenance of supply side equipment and the introduction of real estate stimulus policies; The price of PVC has risen significantly, with an increase of around 500 yuan/ton. At the end of May, PVC prices reached their annual peak, with the highest price exceeding 6000 yuan/ton. The market entered a period of volatile decline from June to August. The second wave of upward trend for the whole year occurred in September and October, mainly due to autumn maintenance and policy factors affecting the rebound of real estate market investment. At the end of the year, the market retreated for two months, and PVC accelerated its downward trend.

Production and demand: The total PVC production in 2024 is approximately 20.4963 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The apparent consumption is about 20.7345 million tons, with a slight decrease compared to the same period. The real estate sector accounts for about 65% of the demand for PVC products, but the sluggish performance of the real estate market has significantly dragged down the demand for PVC.

Capacity change: As of December 2024, the effective production capacity of the PVC industry is 28 million tons. The production plan for 2025 and later includes 200000 tons from Gulf Chemical, 300000 tons from Jintai, 400000 tons from Bohai Development, etc., with a total of 2.5 million tons mainly produced by ethylene method.

Import and export situation: From January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 2.171994 million tons, an increase of 13.87% year-on-year; The cumulative import volume was 183200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 42.68%. The Indian market accounts for about 50% of China’s PVC exports, but the anti-dumping investigation in India has a negative impact on domestic exports.

Outlook for 2025

Supply and demand situation: The contradiction between PVC supply and demand will further intensify in 2025, with a large scale of new production capacity added on the supply side, and downstream demand still facing downward pressure from the sluggish real estate investment situation. Difficulty in reducing midstream inventory, maintaining high levels, and continuing the pattern of excess.

In summary, the PVC market in 2024 is expected to experience low-level fluctuations, with prominent supply-demand contradictions and sustained price suppression. In 2025, the PVC market is expected to continue the situation of oversupply, with prices fluctuating between 4800-6200.