Since October, the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 15580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.52% from 16490 yuan/ton at the beginning of October. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased, and as of October 31st, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber is between 15450 and 15650 yuan/ton.

Since October, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the price of butadiene was 12325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04% from 13700 yuan/ton at the beginning of October.

In October, the domestic butadiene rubber plant started operating at a low level, and as of the end of the month, the production rate was around 5.90%. The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is not high.

Demand side: Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, leading to a decrease in the cost of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber may experience weak fluctuations in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (10.25-10.30), with an average market price of 254500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 255190 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.27%.

Overall this week, news about tin mines in Myanmar has been frequent, and downstream purchasing sentiment is relatively cautious. After Yunxi resumed production, domestic supply resumed and social inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Refineries are facing obstacles in their pricing mentality and their shipments are restricted. The buyer’s mentality in the spot market is cautious, and the overall demand growth is lower than expected. After causing a slight rebound in tin prices, there was a slight decline. But the terminal inquiry heat is good, traders have increased shipments, and the overall market atmosphere is better than last week.

The weakening of the supply and demand margin makes it difficult to provide support for tin prices, and there is significant resistance to price increases. It is expected that tin prices will adjust weakly between high and low regions.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on October 29th was around 1582 yuan/ton. On October 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 105.07, a decrease of 0.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.45% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 19.03% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1584 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China rose in October. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s hydrofluoric acid (export) was 12866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.05% compared to the beginning of this month (12733.33 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The fluorite market has slightly increased this week, and the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. The cost of hydrofluoric acid is under pressure. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 417.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.70% compared to the beginning of this month (337.50 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant market maintenance is gradually recovering, and the quota stock in December is not high. It is expected that there will be insufficient production in the later stage, resulting in weakened demand.

Market forecast: Recently, there will be an increase in raw material prices, and the cost side will still be under pressure. The market supply is scarce, and it is expected that prices will rise significantly at the beginning of next month.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell by 0.79% on October 25th.

After a period of stable support for up to half a month, magnesium prices have experienced two consecutive corrections this week. It is already under downward pressure near the cost line. Adjust to status operation. Today, mainstream manufacturers in Shaanxi region quoted 17500-17600 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in Shanxi region range from 17700-17800 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, factories have a strong willingness to raise prices under high cost pressures, but the large inventory leads to a decrease in quotes. On the cost side, the prices of ferrosilicon and coal have rebounded, weakening support for magnesium prices.

In summary, the factory’s losses continue to intensify, downstream demand has not significantly increased, prices are at a low level, and there is limited room for further decline.