According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the current price of domestic PTA recovered slightly today (September 14). The average price in the spot market was 4890 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 1.51% and a year-on-year increase of 39.85%; The closing price of 2201, the main futures, was 4946, up 2.11%.

For the overhaul of some PTA units, Honggang petrochemical 1#1.5 million ton and 2#2.4 million ton PTA units (half of which are under overhaul) are planned to start maintenance for about one week today. As of September 13, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry is around 81%, which is expected to decline in the later stage, so the PTA inventory accumulation speed is suspended. Superimposed on the rise of crude oil, the support for PTA cost was enhanced. As of September 13, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was reported as $70.45/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was reported as $73.51/barrel. Boosted by raw materials, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the downstream increased slightly, and some manufacturers increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, but the transaction continued to be light.

Business analysts believe that PTA is still expected to accumulate stocks slightly at present, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants has fallen to 84%. Procurement is cautious. In the state of increasing supply and decreasing demand, PTA continues to rise, which is not driven enough. We still need to pay attention to the changes in the demand side of the “golden nine silver ten” in the later stage.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rose sharply this week. On September 12, the average price of Shandong market was 3029.75 yuan / ton, which was 6.87% higher than that of 2835.00 yuan / ton on September 6.

On September 12, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 235.65, the same as yesterday, down 0.49% from the highest point of 236.81 in the cycle (2021-09-09), and up 252.29% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

With the commencement of coke production in the inspection and repair plant, the supply of petroleum coke has increased, but at present, the imported petroleum coke resources have decreased, the self consumption of petroleum coke in some refineries has increased, the inventory of refineries is low, the downstream demand is good, the trading is active, and the price of locally refined petroleum coke has increased significantly.

Upstream: the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the market mainly focused on the recovery time of production capacity affected in the Gulf of Mexico after the hurricane, poor employment data in the United States, downward stock market and the spread of delta virus. The main tone of the market is bearish oil market.

Downstream: the price of petroleum coke in the upstream continues to rise, and the price of calcined coke rises; Metal silicon market rose sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of September 12, the price was 22650.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were methanol (7.93%), dimethyl ether (7.42%) and coking coal (7.10%). There are four commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products are liquefied natural gas (- 2.31%), WTI crude oil (- 1.66%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.60%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.56%.

The petroleum coke analyst of business society believes that the inventory of local refineries is low recently, some refineries are mainly for their own use, and the downstream demand is good. It is expected that petroleum coke may rise in the near future.

The price of ethylene oxide decreased by 300 yuan / ton on Monday. After adjustment, the ex factory price of mainstream East China was 7500 yuan / ton.

The spot price of upstream coal is stable and strong, the domestic spot supply of ethylene is in short supply, the epidemic situation in Japan and South Korea is still severe, and the unloading speed of Inbound Goods slows down. In addition, GS Caltex closed its cracking unit on August 27, 2021, and the cracking unit of Fujian Gulei Petrochemical stopped on August 29 due to technical difficulties. At present, it is still under commissioning, and the downstream purchasing sentiment of ethylene has increased, Ethylene prices at home and abroad have increased to varying degrees. For ethylene oxide, the cost side support is strong.

In terms of downstream monomers, the quotation of Hubei Lingan remained stable this week, but the actual transaction price was reduced. The quotation of Shanghai Dongda was reduced from 9100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8800 yuan / ton at present. The quotation of Sanjiang parking will not be made in January. The price of the single market has been falling for a long time, and the news of Sanjiang parking has slightly led to the rise of the market. The suppliers have a strong willingness to support the price. Today, the transaction price of the single market has increased slightly by about 50-100 yuan. But on the whole, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong, and the later trend is still uncertain.

In terms of ethylene oxide, Sanjiang parking may have a certain impact on ethylene oxide resources in East China, but the overall impact is limited. At present, the supply in North China is slightly abundant, and the rising cost of raw materials has squeezed the profit space of ethylene oxide. Based on the current price of ethylene in Northeast Asia of US $1065 / ton, ethylene oxide manufacturers have produced at a discount, and the National Day holiday is approaching, Some manufacturers may cut production plans.

Under the long short game, the dynamics of ethylene oxide rise and fall are insufficient, so it is necessary to pay close attention to the fluctuation of raw material price.

Acetic anhydride market rose again this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride rose again this week, and the acetic anhydride market recovered. On September 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 9850.00 yuan / ton, up 2.07% from 9650.00 yuan / ton last weekend (September 3).

The market of raw materials rose

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart, the methanol price rose continuously this week and the methanol market rose. The raw material cost rises, the driving force of acetic anhydride rises, and the acetic anhydride market rises again.

Market overview and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that the market situation of acetic anhydride raw materials rose this week, the price of methanol rose, the momentum of acetic acid rise in the future increased, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the momentum of acetic anhydride rise increased; The operation of downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride is low, and the inventory of acetic anhydride enterprises is low. Generally speaking, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials has risen, and the driving force of acetic anhydride market has increased.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 8, the average price of domestic general transparent superior PMMA was 17050.00 yuan / ton, the price remained stable, contract customers purchased on demand, the overall PMMA market operated stably, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 17000 yuan / ton, the focus of negotiation was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase, the transaction atmosphere was flat, and the weak and stable operation was maintained in the short term.

Domestic PMMA maintains stable operation with limited price fluctuation range, mainly for contract customers and just needs to be purchased in the downstream. At present, it is in off-season sales. The transaction atmosphere is general, the fluctuation range is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, the upstream raw materials are weak, the negotiation focus is low, the early trend is maintained in the short term, and the upstream phenol Market is rising in a narrow range, At present, the offer of the mainstream quotation area is 9350 yuan / ton in East China, 9300-9350 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas, 9400-9450 yuan / ton in South China. The unit operating rate is normal. It is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term. The quotation range of the upstream acetone in East China is about 6150-6250 yuan / ton. The purchase enthusiasm is general and the willingness to prepare goods is not obvious, Maintain the early trend in the short term.

Upstream acetone commodity index: on September 7, the acetone commodity index was 66.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.57% from the highest point of 122.02 in the cycle (2020-06-16), and up 117.24% from the lowest point of 30.57 on April 8, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on September 7, the rubber and plastic index was 800 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 24.53% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 51.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that PMMA is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, mainly contract customers, and the transaction of new orders is limited. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).