In the first half of July, the industrial grade dimethyl carbonate market showed a slight and steady upward trend, with a narrow range of strong fluctuations. In the middle of the month, due to rising raw material costs and some equipment maintenance leading to tight spot support, market quotations slightly increased, and the focus of transactions slowly shifted upward. However, the follow-up of terminal demand was weak, the increase was limited, and there was no trend of upward trend. As of July 15th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3866 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.65% from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Cost aspect: rigid support formed by rising raw material prices
In the first half of July, the upstream raw materials of methanol and epichlorohydrin in the dimethyl carbonate market saw a wide rise, and the overall raw material cost center shifted upward, providing sustained rigid support for the dimethyl carbonate market. The pressure on production costs for manufacturing enterprises has increased, coupled with the overall compression of profit margins in the industry. Manufacturers have weak willingness to sell at low prices, and are generally reluctant to sell at high prices. This has effectively supported the market price of dimethyl carbonate and curbed the risk of market downturn.
Supply side: Shortage of spot goods, slow pace of incremental growth
In early July, multiple sets of dimethyl carbonate maintenance facilities in China had not yet resumed operation, and the overall operating rate of the industry remained at a medium low level. The total amount of spot inventory in the market was low, and the tight spot market pattern provided strong support for market prices. In the middle of the year, some of the early parking facilities gradually resumed work, and the market spot quantity increased slightly. However, the progress of equipment resumption is slow, and the short-term new supply is limited, which cannot quickly alleviate the tight spot situation. At the same time, mainstream production enterprises have no inventory pressure, the overall supply rhythm is stable, and there is no phenomenon of bulk dumping. The overall good news on the market supply side still exists, but the strength of the good news is gradually weakening.
On the demand side: there is a strong need to support the bottom, and the increment is seriously insufficient
The overall lackluster performance on the demand side is the core factor restricting a significant increase in the market. The demand differentiation in the two core areas downstream is obvious: the demand in the lithium battery electrolyte field is relatively stable, and the inventory of the terminal new energy industry is stable, maintaining normal essential procurement and providing basic support for the market; The traditional downstream industries such as polycarbonate (PC), coatings, adhesives, etc. are in the off-season of traditional consumption, with insufficient terminal operating rates and weak overall industry trends. The purchasing enthusiasm of enterprises is low, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment, without centralized stocking and large-scale replenishment actions.
Market forecast:
In late July, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is expected to continue a narrow range and strong oscillation trend, with overall growth slowing down and limited upward space. There is no risk of a major decline, and it is highly likely to maintain a stalemate and stable operation pattern. The core fluctuation range of the market is limited, and both upward and downward momentum are insufficient. The overall trend is mainly stable with slight fluctuations.
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