1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 24 was 2423.33 yuan / ton, up 0.69% from the previous day (21 days), down 1.62% month on month and 21.58% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

On Monday, the domestic LNG market remained stable as a whole, and some regions rose slightly, boosting the market atmosphere. In Northern Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places, the shipment of liquid plants has improved slightly, and the demand for downstream gas stations has increased. In addition, some liquid plants, such as Huida in Inner Mongolia and Zhengtai Yida, have plans to stop selling. To a certain extent, it is good for the domestic LNG market. Some liquid plants take advantage of the potential to rise tentatively within 50 yuan. However, due to the influence of the flood season, the logistics in other areas is not smooth, and the shipment is blocked, and the price shows signs of continuous decline, Overall, the market is still weak. In terms of gas intake, there is little change in the air intake. The actual transaction is favorable. At present, the price of imported gas is rising, which has also played a certain role in boosting the domestic LNG market. However, in the off-season of consumption, the downstream procurement still maintains the rigid demand, and lacks the driving force to support the upward trend of liquid price. With the construction enterprises in the early stage successively start to operate, the on-site supply is abundant, and the buyer’s market occupies the leading low position. Therefore, it is difficult for the liquid price to have a larger market and mainly fluctuate in a narrow range.

 

Data show that natural gas production has slowed down and natural gas import has changed from increase to decrease. In July, 14.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and the growth rate was 6.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; the average daily output was 460 million cubic meters, with a decrease of 50 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to July, natural gas production was 108.3 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In July, 7.35 million tons of natural gas were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% and an increase of 11.5% last month. From January to July, 55.71 million tons of natural gas were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.

 

As of August 24, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 2463.33 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2470 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi was around 2470 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 2600 yuan / ton, and that in Xinjiang was 2300 yuan / ton. The overall price of liquid was stable and fluctuated slightly in some areas.

 

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from August 24 to August 21

Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2370 yuan / ton

Star Energy: 1 million cubic meters / day 2470 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2420 yuan / ton: 2420 yuan / ton

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 2400 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton

Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day, 2470 yuan / ton, 2470 yuan / ton

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2850 yuan / ton: 2850 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2330 yuan / ton 2330 yuan / ton 0

Qinshui Xinao — 2700 yuan / ton 2700 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 3000 yuan / ton: 3000 yuan / ton

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 1600 yuan / ton 1600 yuan / ton

The downstream methanol market was weak, and some manufacturers lowered their ex factory quotations by about 20-50 yuan / ton. On August 18, the closing price of methanol in Asia, Europe and the United States was flat compared with the previous day, and the international market was relatively stable. The unit operating rate of production enterprises in the northwest main production area is maintained at 60-80%, and the shipment situation is acceptable, and some enterprises plan to overhaul their devices. The fluctuation of downstream product market is not obvious. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out.

 

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Liquid ammonia, near the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia is mostly stable, and some is rising slightly. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will consolidate at a high level in the near future, and the trend of various regions will be differentiated to some extent. In the short term, due to the maintenance of some units, the partial supply imbalance may be caused. However, in the late stage of plant resumption in Shandong, the ammonia quantity will be accumulated step by step, so the price may be subject to certain restrictions. From the demand side, the downstream procurement is moderate. Although urea has winter storage, the current social inventory is still high and the price support is limited. In terms of the downstream fertilizer market, affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the reduction of export supply is still driven by domestic rigid demand. Therefore, affected by both supply and demand factors, the price of liquid ammonia is expected to be stable in the near future.

 

Urea, in late August, the market price of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is weakened. It is expected that the short-term urea market will mainly fluctuate and fall.

 

Dichloromethane, the overall operating rate of dichloromethane enterprises in Shandong Province has gradually recovered, the enterprise quotation has been at a high level, the downstream market demand is weak, the industry supply and demand game, the production enterprise warehouse pressure is gradually increasing, the industry has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the intention of receiving goods is not high, and it is obviously bearish on future generations. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 2290-2310 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 2900 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2400 yuan / ton. According to the business association, the game between supply and demand of dichloromethane market in Shandong is obvious, the number of new orders in the industry is relatively small, and the accumulation of enterprise inventory is expected to be mainly wait-and-see in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Liquefied natural gas analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the shipment situation in some regions has improved, and the upward trend of imported gas has driven up the market atmosphere, and the liquid plant has tentatively pushed up slightly. However, the demand in the off-season is limited, and the liquid price is difficult to have a larger market. It is expected that the short-term fluctuations will be dominated by narrow range.

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Price trend:

 

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According to the business agency data monitoring, this week, o-benzene Sinopec contract quotation is stable. As of August 24, Sinopec has offered 4400.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene in East China and 4400 yuan / ton in North China, which is stable compared with the beginning of the month, and the market of o-xylene is temporarily stable.

 

External price of o-benzene

 

Commodity name quotation type port price time

O-xylene FOB US $584.33/t US $2020-8-21

O-xylene CFR China $535.00/t 2020-8-21

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $530.00/t 2020-8-21

O-xylene FOB Korea $510.00/t 2020-8-21

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $434.25/t 2020-8-21

O-xylene FOB US $573.30/t US $2020-8-14

O-xylene CFR China $543.00/t 2020-8-14

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $535.00/t 2020-8-14

O-xylene FOB Korea $518.00/t 2020-8-14

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $448.00/t 2020-8-14

O-xylene FOB Gulf of Mexico US $573.30/t 2020-8-7

O-xylene CFR China $525.00/t 2020-8-7

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $520.00/t 2020-8-7

O-xylene FOB Korea $500.00/t 2020-8-7

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $460.00/t 2020-8-7

O-xylene FOB US $551.25/t US $2020-7-31

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $460.00/t 2020-7-31

O-xylene CFR China $538.00/t 2020-7-30

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $525.00/t 2020-7-30

O-xylene FOB Korea $510.00/t 2020-7-30

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp US $460.00/t 2020-7-30

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It can be seen from the external price of o-xylene that the external price of o-xylene fluctuated and adjusted in August, rising first and then falling on the whole, and the external price of o-xylene reached its peak on August 14. Overall, the external price of o-benzene this week remained stable with that in early August. The overall external market for domestic o-benzene market favorable weakened.

 

Future forecast:

 

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, the external price of o-xylene fell last week, the upward momentum of o-benzene weakened, and the favorable influence of the international market on the domestic market disappeared, and the pressure on the decline of o-benzene was greater. Generally speaking, the market of o-benzene in the future market has a great downward pressure and a lack of upward momentum.

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According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market is stable and weak this week, among which the most obvious decline is polyester POY. As of August 21, the average market price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5304 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.03%.

 

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Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from August 14 to 21, unit: yuan / ton

 

Products up and down from August 14, 2020 to August 21, 2020

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5330 5304 – 0.49% – 32.03%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5865 5865 0.00% – 26.73%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6838 6826 – 0.18% – 25.44%

PTA price of raw materials continued to weaken, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream textile enterprises was insufficient, and most of them were mainly to digest inventory. The transaction atmosphere of polyester market was not good, and the price center was stable and fell. At present, the main quoted price of POY 150D / 48F is 5050-5450 yuan / ton, that of FDY 150D / 96F is 5700-6050 yuan / ton, and that of DTY 150D / 48F (low elasticity) is 6650-6950 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 33-41 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 11-18 days, FDY inventory is around 22-32 days, and DTY inventory is about 30-41 days.

 

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The PTA Market of upstream raw material maintained a small decline trend this week. As of August 21, the average market price was 3576 yuan / ton, down 1.47% on a weekly basis and 32.74% on a year-on-year basis. During the week, PTA shutdown and maintenance devices entered the restart stage one after another, with the operating rate increased to more than 87%, and a small increment appeared at the supply side. Although the terminal orders recovered, the market’s expectation for foreign trade weakened and the support from the demand side was insufficient. At the same time, the inventory is still at a high level, because the current social inventory is still at nearly 4 million tons, and the continuous restart of the device leads to the limited duration of removal, so the pressure of PTA social inventory is still large. As of August 14, the domestic PTA social inventory was 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 65000 tons compared with the previous week, but a significant increase of 2.45 million tons compared with the same period in 2019. In addition, the market still has some concerns about crude oil demand, so the price shows a weak downward trend.

 

The overall purchase of the terminal is not good, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has slightly increased around 64%, but it is still at a low level compared with the same period last year. In recent years, the transaction of thin fabrics in the traditional market of China Light and textile city has continued to decline in summer. There are many suppliers in the domestic market who continue to make a small increase in fabric proofing in autumn and winter. There are relatively more varieties of various knitted fabrics on the market, but the spot market volume is still relatively limited. Among them, small jacquard strips and small diamond lattice double sides with polyester bright FDY, semi light FDY, DTY and POY as the main raw materials are small jacquard strips and small diamond lattice double sides The number of sanitary cloths was increased. In addition, autumn T / C polyester cotton blended fabric subscription merchants increased in part, some large-scale business outlets hanging sample listing varieties new growth. T / C polyester / cotton fabrics are mainly made of polyester cotton yarn card, polyester cotton canvas for work clothes made by industrial and mining enterprises in autumn, and polyester and cotton poplin for making autumn long sleeve shirts, and there are still scattered transactions. Foreign trade market, especially the arrival of autumn and winter fabric orders, gradually opened up the situation, sales began to increase locally.

 

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that both domestic and foreign trade orders of terminal textile orders have been improved, which makes the light market sentiment better and has a certain positive effect on the price. However, it does not fully indicate that the market has begun to recover completely. Terminal enterprises keep an eye on raw materials and purchase cautiously, and still need to pay attention to the warming trend of later orders. At the same time, there are still some worries about crude oil demand in the raw material market, and the oil price will consolidate at a high level. PTA plant restart heating, loose supply expectations, inventory remained high, with the restart of polyester plant, the demand side will improve, so the short-term PTA price will maintain a narrow downward trend. Overall, it is expected that the polyester filament market is likely to decline in a narrow range.

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Trade name: ammonium chloride

 

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Latest price (August 19): 642.5 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride is mainly stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dry ammonium chloride in China was 624.5 yuan / ton on the 19th. At present, the overall operating rate of combined caustic soda is over 70%, and the inventory of ammonium chloride is gradually increasing, and the pressure appears. In addition, the downstream is in the off-season of agricultural demand, so the overall demand is not good. The overall market of ammonium chloride was slightly weaker than that in the earlier stage. According to the business agency, the overall industry operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is about 60%.

 

After the market forecast, the market of ammonium chloride is expected to be weak in the short term.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 18, the average price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black was 4566.67 yuan / ton, and the domestic silica market was stable, with balanced supply and demand, mainly on demand.

 

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The domestic rubber grade silica market as a whole maintains stable operation, the trading atmosphere is general, and the demand is not significantly improved. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the merchants take the goods carefully. At present, the price of fumed silica is about 22000 yuan / ton. The domestic supply and demand of fumed silica are balanced, and the shipment is slow. The Changtai micro nano factory in Shouguang City, Shandong Province, 5100 yuan / ton, Shandong Lihua new materials Co., Ltd. 46 00 yuan / ton, 4000 yuan / ton for Boai Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd.

 

The quotation of upstream hydrochloric acid market manufacturers is stable temporarily, the trading atmosphere is maintained at the early stage level, and the domestic hydrochloric acid market mainly operates stably.

 

On August 17, the chemical index was 677 points, unchanged with yesterday, down 33.37% from the cycle’s highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 13.21% higher than the lowest point of 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

Business agency silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market continues to operate stably, and the price changes little. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

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