1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic xylene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3510 yuan / ton, down 0.57% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene price trend this week is generally stable. Port inventory continued to fall, but it was still high. As of the end of last week, the port inventory in East China was about 134000 tons, down about 9000 tons compared with last week, so the pressure to go to the warehouse still exists. There are over supply, low operating rate of downstream PX producers, weak gasoline blending demand, tepid demand for isomerized xylene, and inactive market transactions. The upstream raw material naphtha continued to rise, the downstream product paraxylene fell, and the marginal profit margin of MX industry remained low. According to CFR calculation, the price difference of px-mx narrowed to about $93 / T. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3600 yuan / ton. The market continued to pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the supply of crude oil due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the supply of crude oil, the continued spread of the overseas epidemic delayed the impact of economic restart on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

Upstream, crude oil: at the beginning of this week, affected by the hurricane, a large number of refining facilities in the Gulf of Mexico coastal area were closed, and oil prices rose strongly. In the middle of the week, the impact of Hurricane transit was less than expected, and US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose sharply and fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.305/barrel to close at $44.875/barrel, up 3% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand outlook and oil price trend mainly depend on the global epidemic trend and the orderly recovery of various countries’ economies. Meanwhile, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the linkage with the US dollar index and the stock market, and how oil producing countries and oil companies adjust their production are also important factors affecting oil prices.

Downstream, in PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 517 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 535 US dollars / ton CFR China, down about 14 US dollars / ton compared with last week. It is expected that the short-term PX market will be a small correction. In terms of PTA market, this week’s market price fell back. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3574 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 447 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation was stable, with the price of 4400 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene was about 530 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 545 US dollars / ton CFR China, up about 20 US dollars / ton and 10 US dollars / ton respectively compared with last week. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will rise slightly next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the continuous spread of the global second epidemic on the economic restart of crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and China and the United States, and the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. Overall, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

In August 2020, the domestic market price of 1 ᦇ antimony ingot will rise. The average price of domestic market will be 36875 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 38375 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 1500 yuan / ton or 4.07%.

On August 30, the antimony commodity index was 53.42, unchanged with yesterday, down 47.79% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 13.71% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

This month, the price of antimony products increased for three consecutive days from August 10 to 13, mainly due to the tight supply of raw materials. The manufacturers were reluctant to sell related products, so they raised the ex factory prices continuously, and the market prices of manufacturers kept rising. As of the 31st day, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot, 1 × antimony ingot, 0 × antimony ingot and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot were 37250 yuan / ton, 37750 yuan / ton, 38750 yuan / ton and 35750 yuan / ton respectively. The market price of antimony trioxide keeps stable with the trend of antimony ingot. As of 29, 99.5% of the average price of antimony trioxide was 34500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% was at 36000 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period of last month, it increased by 1250-1500 yuan / ton.

According to the statistics of antimony trioxide output of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in June 2020, the output of antimony trioxide was 8559 tons, with a month on month increase of 5.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; from January to June, the output of antimony trioxide was 42588 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Judging from the above enterprises’ production of antimony trioxide by province, from January to June 2020, the top five provinces and regions with antimony trioxide output ranking first are Hunan 25939 tons, Guangxi 7975 tons, Guangdong 4818 tons, Yunnan 1982 tons and Guizhou 1831 tons, accounting for 60.9%, 18.7%, 11.3%, 4.7% and 4.3% of the total output, respectively. In the first half of the year, domestic production was relatively stable, and the supply was slightly tight, and the related manufacturers were reluctant to sell.

According to the business association, at present, antimony products manufacturers mainly support prices, and metal market fluctuates frequently in recent years. However, when the transaction volume of antimony market is relatively low, most manufacturers mainly support the price, and it is expected that the future market price will remain high and consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on August 24 was 1883 yuan / ton, and that on August 28 was 1866 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.88% during the week.

According to the business club’s big list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on August 24 was 2218 yuan / ton, and that on August 28 was 2268 yuan / ton. The price rose by 2.25% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell slightly, and the operating rate of enterprises was about 75%. In Anhui Province, 55% powdered ammonium was quoted at 1900-1950 yuan / T, and the start-up was stable. In Hubei Province, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium is about 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 60% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The stable operation of Henan market, 55% ammonium powder factory quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, stable start-up. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise, the operating rate of enterprises was about 60%. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is 2300-2350 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan Guizhou area is 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and that in Anhui Province is 2200-2450 yuan / ton. In Gansu Province, 64% DAP mainstream factory quotation is 2300-2450 yuan / T. The quotation of 64% diammonium at the first arrival station in Heilongjiang Province is about 2500 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic market of raw material phosphate ore is weak, and the market price has not fluctuated greatly. The on-site trading is cold, the downstream demand is flat, and the mining enterprises mainly keep a steady wait-and-see attitude. At present, the new orders are mostly small orders and mainly for shipping. The domestic price of raw material sulfur is firm and the market continues to rise. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase on demand.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate business club analysts believe that due to a small number of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises to make up a small amount of single ammonium market trend is weak. The price of diammonium is rising steadily, and the domestic and foreign market demand continues to rise. It is expected that in the short term, primary ammonium will be dominated by weak operation, while the trend of diammonium will continue to rise.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the price of bromine in Shandong was strong and upward in August. As of August 27, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 28588 yuan / ton, up 5.45% from the beginning of the month, and 5.38% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: affected by the continuous rainy weather, the domestic bromine spot supply has dropped sharply, among which some enterprises in North China have stopped temporarily and the supply has been improved slowly. The production situation of enterprises in Shandong is unstable. The enterprises start and stop from time to time, and the supply is tight. The demand of downstream market is still flat. However, bromine enterprises are not in a hurry to ship. In addition, some enterprises replenish their inventory, so the enterprises have a good intention of supporting price 。 At present, the mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 28000-29000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, domestic refineries have low sulfur inventory and tight liquid sulfur supply. Under the performance of supply and demand, it supports the market, which is about 793 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid market is fluctuating and declining, and the domestic acid market is obviously regionalized, with high and low prices coexisting, and the sulfuric acid market is mainly reorganized and operated under excessive supply, which is about 385 yuan / ton at present; the domestic caustic soda market is weak and the market atmosphere is good It is expected that the price of caustic soda will be weak and stable in the short term, with about 475 yuan / ton at present. The main downstream flame retardant market purchase of bromine is still mainly based on rigid demand, and the market start-up is flat, and the industries such as pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates are generally started, and the demand side does not support the price of bromine.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business society, the overall supply of bromine in the domestic market is still tense, the shipment situation of enterprises is still fair, the downstream market is still just in need of purchasing, the bromine price is generally supported, the supply and demand are basically in a balanced state, and the bromine price is expected to be stable and firm in a short time.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products rose slightly. On August 26, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1230.5 yuan / ton, which was 0.14% higher than that of last year. It was the highest point of August 28.01 in 2016, which was 38.04% higher than that of August 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The overall shipment of No. 26 petroleum coke was better, mainly due to the shortage of coke market resources, low inventory of refineries and active downstream procurement. The recent downstream demand of petroleum coke is fair, the shipment is good, and the price has a slight upward trend. The shipment of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke in the frozen area was good, and the price increased by about 20-30 yuan / ton. The trading of high sulfur petroleum coke in East China was relatively stable, and the price was increased by about 20 yuan / ton.

Upstream: on August 25, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.35/barrel, up $0.73. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 46.29 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 0.65 dollars. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil reached the highest level since March, mainly due to the hurricane, most of the offshore crude oil production units along the Gulf of Mexico were shut down, and supply risk partially offset the impact of the epidemic.

Downstream: recent high price consolidation of glass. The trend of glass spot market shows the trend of regional differentiation, and the quotation of manufacturers in South China and East China can still rise slightly; the prices of manufacturers in North and central China are mainly stable, and the market transaction is general. On the whole, some regions have different degrees of acceptance of the existing price system, and the orders of deep processing enterprises have also changed slightly. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to stand up for prices, and they are reluctant to adjust prices in the traditional peak sales season, mainly to stabilize prices. The overall demand for petroleum coke in the downstream is good.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 33rd week of 2020 (8.17-8.21), with coke (3.01%), dimethyl ether (2.38%) and WTI crude oil (1.93%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling month on month, and the top three products were liquefied natural gas (- 2.56%), MTBE (- 1.34%) and diesel (- 0.58%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.22%.

3、 Future forecast

Under the influence of tight supply of resources, the market price of petroleum coke kept rising slightly. The trading atmosphere of petroleum coke market was good, and the current transaction of petroleum coke was acceptable. It is expected that there will still be a small rise in the oil coke market in the later period, and the overall high consolidation market will be the main operation.