Lower profit to win more orders, high price of n-propanol decreased

From the beginning of September to this week, the overall market of n-propanol in China was stable. Until September 11, the suppliers of n-propanol (including packaging) in Shanghai lowered the price of n-propanol (including packaging). This reduction was mainly from high-end suppliers in the early stage, with a reduction range of 500-700 yuan / T. the main reason for the reduction was the current high inventory level and the lower enthusiasm of replenishment before the festival, which stimulated shipment and reduced sales.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 11, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11500 yuan / ton, which was 233 yuan / ton lower than that on September 1, with a decrease of 1.99%; compared with August 1, the average price was reduced by 400 yuan / ton, or 3.36%.

At present, the overall demand of n-propanol market is not obvious before the festival, which is still dominated by early contract users, and the demand is relatively stable. Shandong: the mainstream quotation of n-propanol bulk water is adjusted in a narrow range around 10500-10600 yuan / ton. This week, the price of low-end bulk water is 10000 yuan / ton, including the price of packaging is around 11300-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end including packaging is 11600 yuan / ton this week. Nanjing area: the ex factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water of Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. was 10500 yuan / T, which was 500 yuan / t lower than that at the end of August, and the current market is stable; the ex factory quotation of n-propanol bulk water of Nanjing NOAO new material is 10600 yuan / T, 200 yuan / t lower than that of the end of August, and the current market is stable.

In terms of raw materials, ethylene is on the rise in the near future. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has increased recently. The average price of ethylene in one day is 698.00 US dollars / ton, and the price on the 10th day is 728 US dollars / ton, up 4.3%. As of the 10th, Asian ethylene market prices rose, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 780-790 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia quoted 735-745 USD / T. The European ethylene market price rose, with the European ethylene market price of FD, northwest Europe closing at 691-702 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closing at 681-692 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States is 548-559 US dollars / ton. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and America is on the upward trend, and the overall ethylene market demand is good, and the market continues to rise.

Internationally, on the 10th, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at US $38.05/barrel, down US $0.75. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.79/barrel, down $0.73. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.

Under the support of raw materials, the trend of n-propanol is expected to be stable and small

At present, the supply and demand side of the domestic n-propanol market is basically normal. The main domestic n-propanol manufacturers supply more contract users. The high level of raw materials gives the cost pressure, and the market of n-propanol is relatively small. In addition, the double festival is coming, and the stock tide before the festival may come. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic n-propanol market will be stable in the short term, supplemented by narrow adjustment, and the trend will be stable.

1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

Polyoxymethylene price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong Province on September 8 was 4466 yuan / ton, compared with 4433 yuan / ton last week, up 0.75%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4200 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. The price of paraformaldehyde in some areas has been adjusted and the price has gone up. Paraformaldehyde is in general.

As for the situation of upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market continued to rise on September 7, and some manufacturers increased the ex factory quotation by about 30-50 yuan / ton. The upstream raw material methanol is favorable to support, and the price of paraformaldehyde goes up.

3、 Future forecast

Under the good raw materials, POM analysts believe that: polyoxymethylene prices will be on the main.

1、 Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, as of September 7, the mainstream reference quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou was around 300-330 yuan / ton, which was 10 yuan / ton lower than the market price at the end of August.

In the first week of September, some mining enterprises are difficult to reduce the price of phosphate rock

This week, the domestic phosphate ore market as a whole is stable, and mining enterprises in many regions are still waiting and waiting. On Friday, a small number of mining enterprises in Guizhou reduced the initial high-grade external price of phosphate rock by 10 yuan / ton. At present, most of the mining enterprises in Guizhou maintain the orders of old customers, and the majority of them are in the field of wait-and-see mood. At present, the mainstream quotation of 30% of raw ore in Guizhou is 310-330 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is 280 yuan / ton. Guizhou Fuquan Huifa 30% grade phosphate rock plate price 330 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than August, 28% grade phosphate rock plate price 290 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than the end of August. The phosphate ore market in Hubei is weak, and the price of 30% raw ore ship plate of Liushugou mining is 390 yuan / T.

On the downstream side, in September, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market was mainly stable. At present, the trading situation of yellow phosphorus market was fair, and the enterprises intended to adjust the price. At present, Yunnan Net phosphorus ex factory acceptance transaction referred to around 15000 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is running steadily for the time being, and the situation of enterprises’ delivery is general.

Internationally, at present, WTI crude oil price fell by more than 2% in the early trading to below $39 / barrel, continuing the downward trend of last week. Several of the reasons for the decline have to do with demand, or rather a persistent lack of demand. The reason for Saudi Arabia’s cut in oil prices is the lack of purchasing volume, and the “driving” season in the United States is over, and oil consumption is likely to decrease in the next few weeks. In the long run, Russia believes that demand will not recover in three years. These factors may cause OPEC’s oil price expectation to remain below $50 / barrel.

The phosphate ore market is mainly stable for the time being, and the short-term delivery is not improved

According to the phosphate rock analysts of the business society, the improvement of domestic phosphate ore market demand is still not obvious at this stage. The mining enterprises mainly supply contract orders, and the production and sales are generally in general. It is expected that the stable operation will still be maintained in the short term. The support of the downstream yellow phosphorus Market for phosphate rock is generally limited, and it is expected that the increase in market sales will not be too large in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic baking soda has stabilized temporarily this week. The average price of domestic market is 1506.67 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week. On September 3, the bicarbonate commodity index was 100.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting an all-time high in the cycle, up 0.00% from the lowest point of 100.00 on September 02, 2020. It reached a new low in the cycle, down 0.00% from the peak of 100.00 on September 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of sodium bicarbonate has been running steadily after the early rising trend. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is temporarily stable, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The price of sodium bicarbonate is rising, and the downstream demand is fair. It is expected that the price will slightly consolidate in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei is stable. The mainstream quotation is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton. The price of sodium bicarbonate is temporarily stable. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future.

Raw materials: according to the understanding of the business agency, the price of soda ash manufacturers increased last week. First, according to the spirit of the association meeting, the price of light alkali increased by 200 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda increased by 400 yuan / ton. This week, the trend of domestic soda ash market is relatively strong, and the price of enterprises has increased greatly. The market atmosphere is flat, downstream demand has improved, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. Second, domestic soda ash inventory declined. According to statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda manufacturers was 842100 tons, down 90400 tons month on month. From the supply side, affected by natural disasters and other factors, the number of maintenance enterprises has increased recently. The domestic total operating rate is about 70%.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is fair, while the price of sodium bicarbonate goes up. Business agency analysts believe that: the price of raw material soda ash in the upstream is rising steadily at this stage, and the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food in the downstream is fair. It is expected that the price of sodium carbonate will be mainly stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market was adjusted in a narrow range in August, and various spot brands were up and down in a narrow range. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 11000.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

PA6 upstream caprolactam market fell slightly in August, with the decline mainly concentrated in the first ten days. The monthly low point appeared on August 7, and the average ex factory price was about 9416 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the restart of downstream maintenance units was delayed, which caused pressure on the supply and demand side of the north, and the price of caprolactam was adjusted. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was 9416 yuan / ton on August 17, and 9450 yuan / ton on August 23. Raw material pure benzene Market Volatility in August, the direction of the introduction of lactam market direction is more ambiguous. The improvement of downstream demand is limited, and it is expected that caprolactam prices will be low in the short term, and the finishing operation will be dominated.

The price of PA6 in August showed two cycles of rise and fall, and the whole month’s price fluctuated. Among them, the first ten days of the market continued the negative trend of July low, combined with the decline of upstream lactam, cost support weakened, the overall lack of good news to boost. In the second half of the month, caprolactam gradually stabilized, which affected the recovery of PA6 price, but the market atmosphere was still mainly stalemate. Business operation is biased towards stable price shipment, and the actual order is more profitable. As traders and downstream factories have a certain amount of advance consumption for the coming “golden nine silver ten”, it is necessary to further observe the downstream inventory consumption in order to improve the market trading.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in August, domestic PA6 market volatility, the spot price of each brand up and down each other. The upstream caprolactam is generally stable, with a high price, and a general support for the cost end of PA6. The inventory of downstream factories is sufficient and the inquiry intention is general. The business mentality is not strong, the actual order has the profit to move the single operation, the market presents the trend of mutual game between cost and demand. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future.