In November, China’s domestic refined petroleum coke prices continued to fall

1、 Price data

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According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in November was 3074.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2295.75 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 778.25 yuan / ton and a monthly decrease of 25.32%.

On December 1, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 180.50, up 1.94 points from yesterday, down 31.16% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 169.85% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in November, local petroleum coke continued to decline sharply. Recently, the operating rate of local refineries has increased, with positive shipment and general trading. The inventory of some refineries is high, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is general, and the goods are prepared carefully.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell sharply in November. Firstly, since the middle of the year, the outbreak of the European epidemic has aroused investors’ concerns about the demand prospect, and the oil price began to enter the downward channel. Second, in order to deal with domestic inflation, the United States has been committed to suppressing the decline of oil prices. On the 19th, it announced that it would unite with multinational governments to release strategic oil reserves. Affected by supply expectations, oil prices are falling sharply. Finally, on the 26th, a new crown variant strain was found, causing market panic, market concerns about the recovery of future demand, a huge earthquake in the capital market, and oil prices fell sharply with the global stock market.

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Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell in November; The metal silicon market fell sharply; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell. As of November 30, the price was 18876.67 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in November 2021, the energy sector rose month on month, with naphtha (0.81%). A total of 15 commodities fell month on month, and 14 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 87.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coke (- 39.62%), coking coal (- 31.52%) and petroleum coke (- 25.32%). The average rise and fall this month was – 14.38%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the operating rate of local refining manufacturers has increased recently, the inventory of petroleum coke is high, the shipment is general, the downstream demand is weakened, the procurement enthusiasm is general, and the goods are prepared carefully. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in December.

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