According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly in September. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2666.67 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.42% compared with the price of 2655.56 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.98%.

 

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In September, the price trend of fluorite was mainly fluctuating, and the overall price rose slightly. Recently, manufacturers reported that the fluorite orders were generally in general, and the on-site merchants were not willing to sell at a low price. The supply of fluorite on the floor was slightly tense, and the price of fluorite was slightly lower. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite market price has risen slightly. In September, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price was lower, and the terminal downstream was mainly purchased on demand. As of the end of the month, the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Fujian was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Henan was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the 97 fluorite wet powder price in Jiangxi Province was 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite price has not changed much recently The trend is mainly stable.

 

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite decreased slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 8440 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.52% in September. The downward trend of hydrofluoric acid market price has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the increase of fluorite price is very limited. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry are not as good as that. The market trend of the refrigerant downstream of the terminal has remained at a low level. The demand for refrigerants has not been significantly improved. The recovery of foreign economy is not obvious. The export situation of refrigerant terminal is general. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales service is weak. On the whole, the foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the market price is not available. The mainstream price of R22 in large domestic enterprises is 15000-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of R134a is low, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream start-up is not high, and the demand for R134a is still cold. In recent years, the purchasing situation of downstream industry is general, and the price trend of fluorite is mainly stable.

 

Generally speaking, the market situation of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, but the price of hydrofluoric acid market is weak recently. However, the fluorite market reflects a slight shortage of supplies in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the fluorite market price may have an upward trend in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, aniline prices rose this week. On September 20, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4650-4900 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4900-5000 yuan / ton; on September 27, the price of aniline in Shandong was 5000-5200 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 5200-5300 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.69% over last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

In terms of cost, the northern downstream stock has come to an end, and the Shandong market has been light this week. Pure benzene enterprise festival inventory, cut prices, this week the market in Shandong weakened again. On Sunday (September 27), the listed price of pure benzene was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (average price 3400 yuan / ton), up 0.29% over last week.

 

This week, the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

 

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Before the festival, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good, enterprise shipment is smooth, inventory is low, and the price goes up.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

In terms of cost, at present, the demand for pure benzene in the downstream is not strong. In addition, the domestic hydrobenzene shutdown and maintenance devices are gradually restored, which is expected to have an impact on the pure benzene market. It is expected that benzene will maintain weak operation before the festival.

 

Downstream purchasing enthusiasm to support aniline prices, is expected to trend strong next week, may rise.

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According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose in September. As of the 27th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 5400 yuan / ton, which was 6.93% higher than 5050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.48%.

 

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In September, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market improved. In the near future, downstream procurement was still mainly on demand, and the downstream DOP price rose. In addition, the price of o-benzene did not change much, so the market price of phthalic anhydride rose. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started normal operation, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride was less than 60%. Domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchased on demand. The traders in the market were bullish, and the exchange trading market was improved. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China rose, and high-end transactions were limited. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was 5400-5500 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene process was 5100-5300 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 5300-5500 yuan / T, and the observation state of phthalic anhydride field was still in existence. Due to the shortage of supply, domestic phthalic anhydride price increased.

 

In September, the domestic price of o-benzene was stable. By the end of the month, the price of o-benzene was 4400 yuan / T, which was the same as the price of 4400 yuan / T at the beginning of the month. The stable price of domestic o-benzene played a certain role in supporting the cost of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the price of imported o-benzene in the port area was lower, and the external quotation of o-benzene was mainly stable. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, the actual list was discussed in detail, and the on-the-spot situation of o-benzene merchants The price trend of phthalic anhydride rose under the influence of tight supply.

 

The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride rose in September. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of DOP at the end of September was 7266.67 yuan / ton, which was 4.31% higher than that of 6966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol in the field rose, DOP device operated stably, the spot supply was normal, and the DOP market price rose. The market of plasticizer industry was higher. The DOP market quotation was 7350-7650 yuan / ton. Downstream customers were active in purchasing. The transaction of plasticizer was temporarily stable. The price trend of DOP rose in September, which had a positive support for the price of phthalic anhydride. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose.

 

In the future, the domestic phthalic anhydride price trend is mainly volatile, but the transaction price of plasticizer is general, and the pressure of continuous rising of plasticizer price is great. In addition, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running stably. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in October will fluctuate mainly, and there is no lack of possibility of falling.

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The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on September 24 was 36.78, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 63.94% compared with 102.01 (2014-01-09), and increased by 22.64% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

 

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Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from September 21 to 25 (unit: yuan / ton)

 

Regional prices rose and fell on the 21st and 25th

East China 3350-3400 3300-3350 – 50

3100 ～ 3200, 3080 ～ 3150 – 35 in Shandong Province

 

This week (September 21-25), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong decreased slightly, at 3150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3115 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 35 yuan / ton.

 

On August 14, 2020, the price of pure benzene of Qilu Petrochemical (Sinopec North China) will be reduced by 100 yuan / ton, and the price will be 3300 yuan / ton after adjustment. Since then, Sinopec’s price has not been adjusted

 

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This week, the external price of crude oil and pure benzene was lower, and the fundamental support was limited. The bidding price of upstream crude benzene increased this week, with the range of about 50 yuan / ton in Shandong. The coking enterprises started work well this week, and the supply of crude benzene was sufficient. After the third round of rising of coke, the coking enterprises started to work actively. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises this week decreased by about 5% compared with last week, and the cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was still large, and some enterprises stopped operation. In terms of pure benzene, the operating rate dropped slightly this week, and the port inventory was about 265000 tons, slightly lower than last week. Although it is close to the manufacturers and some manufacturers have the demand of stock preparation before the festival, with the price of pure benzene falling, the value support of hydrogenated benzene is limited, and it is estimated that consolidation will be the main trend in the future.

 

In the downstream, the phenol operating rate decreased significantly this week, and most other products increased slightly. The profit situation of downstream was still not optimistic, and the demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene was limited.

 

In the future market, the business agency believes that crude oil volatility trend and pure benzene external market trend are weak, the fundamental support is weak, the upstream crude benzene price rises, the cost pressure on hydrogenated benzene is still large, the fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected that hydrobenzene will fluctuate in the aftermarket, focusing on the crude oil price trend and pure benzene price adjustment.

PVA

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on September 22, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 6675 yuan / ton, up 1.44% compared with last Tuesday, 1.68% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 1.48% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 1.77% lower than that of the same period last year.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

On Tuesday, PVC market remained stable, with partial fine adjustment. Last week, the PVC market showed a steady upward trend, and the market continued up to now. The mainstream enterprises increased about 100-150 yuan. Taking Shandong Xinfa as an example, the price was 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, and 6630 yuan / ton on the 22nd. The price rose by 130 yuan. Some enterprises are short of goods and will not offer for the time being. As the holidays approached, the downstream started replenishment mode, and the futures continued to rise, boosting the trend of the spot market. The low-end price of PVC began to move closer to the high-end price, the market trading atmosphere turned better, and the attitude of the industry was optimistic. In some regions, the supply of goods was not much, the manufacturers’ pre-sale was better, and the focus of PVC gradually moved up.

 

At present, the demand for PVC is improving, the export side is picking up, the domestic downstream demand is stable, the operating rate of pipe and membrane material enterprises is maintained at a medium high level, other product industries are maintained at a medium level, and the overall operating rate is slightly increased. Recently, maintenance enterprises have increased, such as Baotou sea level, Shandong Dongyue and other enterprises, as well as the reduction of import volume, the supply side is somewhat tight, PVC manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and have a strong sense of price support. Overall, PVC supply and demand pattern is roughly balanced, there is no obvious contradiction, PVC trend is relatively strong in the short term.

 

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is around 6400-6750 yuan / ton. At present, the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of East China is increased, including the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of East China, and the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area of eastern China is raised by RMB 6750-6750 / T, and the price of pvc5-6750 tons in the mainstream area is raised. Prices from all over the country rose steadily.

 

In terms of futures, v2101 opened at 6705 yuan / ton on Tuesday and closed at 6645 yuan / ton, down 0.60%. Yesterday’s settlement price was 6685, and the trading range was 6630-6720 yuan / ton, with 171000 transactions and 11300 hands reduced to 195000 hands.

 

Regional variety and technology September 22

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6750-6850 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 6570-6640 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6750 yuan / ton

 

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Upstream crude oil, on September 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 39.54 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 1.78 dollars or 4.31%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price to 41.96 US dollars / barrel, down 1.72 US dollars or 3.94%. The sharp decline in oil prices was mainly due to the collapse of global stock markets and the resurgence of the European epidemic, which led to the panic and fall of oil prices.

 

Ethylene, the recent U.S. ethylene market is mainly rising, poor demand. Ethylene prices in Asia are mainly stable and demand is fair. The market of ethylene in Europe declined and the demand was moderate. Affected by the price of upstream crude oil, ethylene market may fall mainly in the later period.

 

Calcium carbide, late September, calcium carbide Market small shocks. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream rises slightly. The downstream customers are more active in purchasing calcium carbide. Moreover, the production capacity of calcium carbide is insufficient at this stage, and the supply of calcium carbide is tense. The later market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in late September.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of business agency believe that as enterprises enter autumn overhaul, import volume decreases, supply side supply is tight, PVC export gradually improves, domestic downstream stock increases before the festival, and futures rebound, the PVC center of gravity begins to move up, but there are new capacity plans to enter the market, early maintenance enterprises return to work, PVC faces the risk of callback. PVC prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term.

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