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Raw material decline: Recently, the PA6 market has surged and fallen

lubon — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 01:32:58 +0000

Market trend
In the past week (April 8-14), the PA6 market experienced a trend of first rising and then falling. The benchmark price of Shengyi reached its peak of 14600 yuan/ton for the year on April 13th (up 3.55% from the beginning of the month), but then quickly fell back. As of April 14th, it closed at 14133.33 yuan/ton, down 3.20% from the previous day, giving up most of the gains.
influencing factors
Cost aspect
In the first half of the week, the core raw material of PA6, caprolactam, maintained a tight pattern. On April 7th, Sinopec’s weekly closing price of caprolactam was significantly increased by 1120 yuan/ton to 14030 yuan/ton, an increase of about 8.7%, directly pushing up the production cost of PA6, and the market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, cost support loosened in the second half of the week. On April 13th, Sinopec announced that the latest weekly closing price of caprolactam had dropped to 13800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous period, directly weakening the cost support of PA6 and cooling down the market’s bullish expectations.
Supply and demand side
The supply side is showing a clear trend of looseness, resulting in significant price suppression. The overall supply remains loose. It is worth noting that multiple companies have clearly marked “actual order negotiation” in their quotations, and there is room for downward negotiation in the actual transaction price, reflecting the strong willingness of the supply side to ship and the lack of sustained upward movement in prices.
The overall demand side is weak. Although the downstream terminal textile and chemical fiber industry has resumed work, its acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. Procurement is mainly based on “replenishment of essential needs and procurement as needed”, and there has been no centralized hoarding. The trading atmosphere is cautious. According to the 2025 annual report and 2026 first quarter report of Jujishun, the industry is deeply mired in oversupply caused by concentrated capacity release, weak downstream demand, and the entire industry is generally in a state of loss.
Market forecast:
In the short term, it is expected that PA6 will maintain a weak oscillation and a downward shift in focus in the future. On the cost side, the price of Sinopec caprolactam has been lowered, and the high operating rate in the industry continues to suppress prices. If there is no new price increase catalyst on the raw material side, cost support will further weaken. Before there is a significant rebound in terminal orders on the demand side, downstream willingness to replenish inventory is unlikely to significantly increase, and trading is likely to remain sluggish.

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Remote costs plummet, ABS prices fall from high in the first half of April

lubon — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 01:49:27 +0000

In the first half of April, the domestic ABS market fell from a high level, and the spot prices of most grades were lowered. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of April 14th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12216.67 yuan/ton, a 4.31% decrease from the beginning of the month.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Entering April, the domestic ABS industry has relatively concentrated maintenance. By mid April, the overall operating level of the industry was around 59%, with an average weekly output of less than 130000 tons, and finished product inventory levels of over 195000 tons continued to accumulate. In the short term, there will be little change in production in the future, and the supply in the market will shift from tight balance to abundant. Overall, the ABS supply side provides moderate support for spot prices.
Cost factor: Since early April, the situation in the Middle East has been fluctuating, and the mentality of industry players has been divided. US crude oil inventories have accumulated beyond expectations, coupled with OPEC+’s firm stance on production cuts, causing crude oil futures to plummet simultaneously. The upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the same petrochemical products, either remain stagnant or decline. The domestic demand for acrylonitrile in the market is gradually shrinking, and there is a shortage of spot buying gas. The sluggish transactions have suppressed the market’s continued upward trend, and negotiations in some northern markets have slightly declined. Under local sales pressure, there are downward expectations in the market.
The unilateral surge in the butadiene market has ended. Downstream enterprises such as butadiene rubber have reduced their demand for butadiene due to rigid procurement. Similar to acrylonitrile, the domestic market demand remains weak, and the tight supply and shortage of imported materials in some areas make it difficult for businesses to support high reporting. For the past half month, the price center of gravity has continued to decline. It is recommended to focus on tracking cost fluctuations, equipment production and maintenance progress, and downstream actual transaction follow-up changes in the future.
The styrene market fluctuated and fell. The geopolitical situation is fluctuating, and crude oil prices fluctuate after falling. Although overseas pure benzene facilities have reduced their load, the market mentality is divided. Downstream high price resistance is strong, and the cash flow of the 3S industry continues to suffer losses, resulting in a decrease in load. Currently, there is a lack of positive guidance in the market, and it is expected that styrene may follow the fluctuations in oil prices in the short term.
On the demand side: After returning from the small holiday in April, downstream ABS enterprises did not start as expected, and the consumption of the main terminal electrical shell industry was average. The profitability of terminal enterprises did not improve. The atmosphere of chasing price increases in the venue has slowed down, and there has been a reduction in replenishment and warehouse building operations. Merchants engage in profit taking operations that result in a downward trend, causing a drag on the price center of gravity. The current ABS finished product inventory position continues to rise, and the buyer camp’s resistance to high priced goods is expanding. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
The domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell in the first half of April. The production load of the aggregation plant has been reduced, but the on-site supply is still abundant. The cost and material market have weakened. The current ABS market is in a dual negative situation of high cost decline and weak demand. Under high production capacity, centralized maintenance has limited suppression on inventory accumulation. At present, spot prices are declining at a high level, and trading on the market is relatively quiet.

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The domestic styrene butadiene rubber market may face a turning point

lubon — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 01:30:05 +0000

Since the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has surged for a month and then slightly declined, with cost driven as the core theme. According to data from Shengyi Society, the mainstream price of styrene butadiene 1502 in early March was about 13140 yuan/ton, and as of April 10th, the price was 17400 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 32.40%, a decrease of 4.04% from the highest price of 18133 yuan/ton at the end of March.
The cost side is the core driving force behind the increase: the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices, driving up the prices of naphtha and ethylene cracking chains across the board. The raw material butadiene increased from 9993 yuan/ton to 16666 yuan/ton, an increase of 66.78%, due to the decrease in overseas cracking load, the increase in export orders, and the tight domestic spot market; Styrene rose by 33.32% synchronously, and the production cost of styrene butadiene rubber increased significantly. External raw material enterprises suffered losses and were forced to concentrate on raising factory prices, with a strong willingness to raise prices.
The tightening of the supply side exacerbates the supply-demand gap: In March, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber plant experienced an increase in maintenance due to the inverted cost of raw materials and a decrease in operating rates, resulting in an industry operating rate of around 74%, supporting the continuous upward movement of spot prices.
Demand side rigid demand support: The downstream tire, shoe material, and waterproofing membrane industries are in the traditional peak season, but high prices suppress procurement, mainly relying on small order rigid demand and on-demand procurement, limiting the room for growth. As of the week of April 3rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire companies was 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 7.2%.
Future outlook:
From the perspective of the average spot price curve chart of Shengyi Society and the five level position method of Shengyi Society’s commodities, the spot price of styrene butadiene rubber has been above the 20 day moving average since the Middle East conflict, with a strong upward trend; On April 8th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber fell below the 20 day moving average for the first time, and on the same day, the price of styrene butadiene rubber was in a one-year super high position, indicating that there is a high probability that the price of styrene butadiene rubber will turn from rising to falling. However, the overall price is still above the 30 day and 60 day moving averages, and the specific decline remains to be observed.
Overall, there is still support on the cost side at present, but the geopolitical conflict has initially cooled down, and the high price of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly decreased; In the medium term, there may be a turning point from rising to falling in the next 1-2 months, with the risk mainly due to cost changes caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

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Lithium carbonate trend is upward and the process is bumpy

lubon — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 01:38:40 +0000

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of lithium carbonate has continued to fluctuate recently. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 156000 yuan/ton, up 1.3% month on month and 117% year-on-year. The core trend is jointly dominated by supply side games, demand side resilience, and macro emotions.
Supply side: “Double Disturbance” Game, Policy and Supply Uncertainty Dominate
The supply side is the core “trigger” of this round of price fluctuations, with two major disruptive factors continuing to ferment, causing the market to oscillate between “relaxing expectations” and “long-term tightening”.
Zimbabwe ban: undecided, repeatedly disturbed
On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe announced an indefinite suspension of lithium raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, which will be fully implemented on March 3. The core goal is to promote local value-added processing of minerals and emulate the Indonesian nickel ore model. At the end of March, there were rumors that Chinese funded enterprises such as China National Mining Corporation were granted export quotas, leading to a sharp drop in prices; However, Zhongkuang Resources responded that there was only communication and no clear timeline. On March 31st, the eighth cabinet meeting reiterated the maintenance of the ban with no signs of relaxation. On April 2nd, it was reported online that the latest document from Zimbabwe shows that companies must build lithium sulfate factories that meet government standards, pass inspections, and have production capacity before January 1, 2027; After January 1, 2027, only deep processed products such as lithium sulfate are allowed to be exported, and the export of lithium concentrate is completely prohibited.
Australian fuel crisis: marginal disturbance amplified
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, diesel supply is tight in some mines in Australia. The annual consumption of diesel in Australian mining is about 9.6 billion liters, and lithium mines are not a priority supply target. Although it is clarified that diesel is mainly used for transportation and has not directly affected production, Australia accounts for about 30% of global lithium supply, and the current supply elasticity is declining. Any marginal disturbance is easily amplified as a “supply interruption risk”, exacerbating market anxiety.
Other supply disturbances: The uncertainty of resuming production at mines such as Ningde Jianxiawo continues, coupled with the unclear pace of resuming production at major domestic mines, resulting in insufficient overall supply side elasticity and further amplifying price fluctuations.
Demand side: Energy storage becomes the core increment, providing support for automobile recovery
The demand side is the high priced “ballast stone”, driven by both energy storage and new energy vehicles, with demand resilience exceeding expectations.
Energy storage: the largest growth engine, accounting for over 40% of production scheduling
In March 2026, the total production capacity of the domestic lithium battery market was about 219 GWh, a month on month increase of 16.5%. Among them, the proportion of energy storage battery cell production increased to 40.6%, a significant increase from the beginning of the year, and has become a core demand source on par with power batteries. The price of energy storage systems has stabilized and rebounded, with 314Ah energy storage cells rising from 0.31 yuan/Wh to 0.36 yuan/Wh, and the bid price of energy storage systems rising from 0.5 yuan/Wh to 0.8 yuan/Wh. The price recovery combined with increased demand has accelerated the realization of the prosperity.

New energy vehicles: mild recovery, resilient loading capacity
In March, the estimated wholesale volume of new energy vehicles for passenger car manufacturers nationwide was 1.12 million, which remained the same year-on-year but increased month on month. Coupled with the continuous increase in single vehicle charging capacity, the battery loading volume did not significantly shrink. Tesla’s Shanghai factory delivered over 85600 vehicles in March, a month on month increase of 46%. Nearly 60% of global deliveries in the first quarter came from the Shanghai factory, highlighting strong demand in the Chinese market.
Supply and demand gap support: Morgan Stanley predicts a lithium shortage of 80000 tons in 2026, while UBS predicts a shortage of 22000 tons. The supply and demand gap provides fundamental support for high prices.
Analysis of Future Trends from the Technical Perspective of Business Society’s Spot Connect
As can be seen from the graph, the current daily moving average is above the 10 day moving average, and the 10 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average, indicating an upward trend.
Although the current price is at a mid to low level on the 10th, it is expected to remain at a high level in the long run, with limited upward potential.
Overall, the demand for lithium carbonate is strong, and there is upward momentum in the price curve. However, there are frequent news disturbances, great instability in the supply side, and the price is at a high level, with limited upward space. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

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Expected short-term peak season surge, polyester bottle chip market shows high volatility this week

lubon — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 01:33:45 +0000

This week (3.31-4.3), the polyester bottle chip market showed a high-level oscillation, initially suppressed and then rising trend, with the core being driven by cost, tight supply, and cautious demand. As of April 3rd, according to the price data from Shengyi Society, the weekly average price of East China water bottle grade spot goods is 8780 yuan/ton; At the beginning of the week, due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the decline in oil prices, the price dropped from around 8800 yuan/ton to 8600-8650 yuan/ton. The week was dominated by low positions and downstream demand small orders. Starting from Thursday, the price rebounded due to the maintenance of PTA major factories and the strengthening of the basis. On Friday, the mainstream price was reported at 8700-8750 yuan/ton, mainly supported by strong costs, tight supply, and cautious demand games.
2、 Core market analysis
1. Cost side: Geopolitics+oil prices, strong support
The situation in the Middle East is tense, and international crude oil is fluctuating at high levels (around Brent $118/barrel)
PTA major factory maintenance, strengthening foundation, and rising raw material costs
The production cost of bottle slices is about 7509 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 443 yuan/ton, and there is still profit
2. Supply side: Low production and tight spot availability
Industry operating rate of 71.7% (slightly increased month on month)
Large factories are controlling their sales volume and reducing contract goods, resulting in low social inventory for six months
Lack of spot circulation, difficulty in obtaining goods, and strengthening basis
3. Demand side: Expected peak season, but high price suppression
Domestic: Beverage peak season stocking has started, but high prices suppress procurement, downstream orders are made on demand to digest inventory
• Exports: 430000 tons exported in February (month on month -15.39%), but still increased year-on-year, supported by overseas inventory replenishment
3、 Future prospects
1、 Short term (1-3 weeks): Strong fluctuations at high levels, peak season surges
Trend characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) shows an upward trend, while the medium-term moving average (20 days) shows a downward trend. Currently, there are signs of the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating strong short-term upward momentum.
Location characteristics: The short-term moving average (10 days) is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range, the 20 day moving average is at the middle level (3 points) in the 5th range, and the 30 day moving average is at a high level (1 point) in the 5th range.
Core judgment: Strong consolidation in the range of 8500-9000 yuan/ton, with a potential short-term impact of 9200 yuan/ton.
Risk points: significant drop in oil prices, intensified resistance to downstream high prices, and slowdown in procurement.
（2） Mid term (1-3 months): fluctuating and falling back, gradually returning to a rational range
Location characteristics: The current price is in a one-year super high state, with a premium of 20% compared to the median value of 7355 yuan/ton and a premium of 43.1% compared to the average value of 6168.75 yuan/ton. The position is consistently low, and the pressure of high-level correction continues to accumulate;
Trend characteristics:
New production capacity release: Approximately 1.35 million tons will be added in 2026, with concentrated production in the second half of the year and loose supply.
• End of peak season: Beverage demand weakened by the end of Q3, and downstream entered the destocking stage.
Cost loosening: PX will increase production capacity by the end of the year, PTA processing fees will be repaired, and cost support will be weakened.
Supply and demand shift: from tight balance to weak balance/slight easing.
Core judgment: The price gradually falls back to 8000-8600 yuan/ton, and the average price has decreased compared to the first half of the year.

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